Gavin Struve
Aug 12, 20229 min
Updated: Aug 14, 2022
NC State’s men’s cross country is at an anxiety-inducing juncture that hundreds of less successful programs would envy.
This fall, the Wolfpack men could either return to being one of the better cross country programs regionally and nationally, or they could continue their downward trend from last season, slipping toward the muddled middle of the collegiate cross country landscape.
But perhaps the latter is too gloomy of a proposition.
With a lineup featuring a healthy mixture of veterans and rising youngsters, it appears more likely than not that NC State will return to their string of success that they had from 2015 to 2020, garnering six-straight NCAA XC Championship appearances.
A return to the upper-echelon of the ACC may prove more difficult in 2022 given their competition, but the pieces are absolutely there for that to happen.
Last fall, despite not having numerous key scorers from the year before, was hardly a meltdown for NC State, although they certainly left us wanting more.
The Wolfpack began their 2021 fall campaign with a modest runner-up finish on their home course at the Adidas XC Challenge. That result likely stung as they lost to rival North Carolina, although that team went on to post a top-20 finish at the national meet.
And at that point in the season, it was hard to put too much emphasis on a simple rust-busting effort. Bigger races lied ahead.
NC State then headed to the loaded Joe Piane Invitational where they enjoyed what was arguably their best team performance of the season, placing 10th overall and taking down some respectable teams like Georgetown, Indiana and Purdue.
Veteran JP Flavin was tremendous, posting a fantastic 11th place finish to give his team a legitimate scoring spark. Robinson Snider (41st) and Gavin Gaynor (50th) also held their own, producing finishes that would at least stabilize the middle portion of their lineup.
But after those three, there was a scoring drop. NC State's final two scorers secured 72nd and 111th place finishes. Neither of those results were terrible, but it certainly limited how far up the team standings the Wolfpack men could have placed.
Two weeks later, the Wolfpack's postseason prospects may have come into question when they finished 23rd overall at the loaded Nuttycombe Invitational. Although, truthfully, it wasn’t that much worse of a performance than what they did at Joe Piane, but it was still a reality check of where they stood in a deeper national-caliber field.
Flavin's 39th place finish was solid, but there was likely more scoring potency that NC State wanted to get out of him. After him, Snider was the only other runner to crack the top-100 individual spots. The other three scorers finished 119th, 124th and 127th overall.
Fast forward to championship season and things largely stayed the same.
A 6th place finish at the ACC XC Championships was not bad per se, but at that point in the season, it appeared that NC State’s postseason hopes were really slim unless they could peak perfectly at their regional meet.
With no men in the top-15 and only two men in the top-30 of their conference meet, the limited firepower of NC State's lineup made it challenging to envision them as a national qualifying team.
And sure enough, that didn’t quite happen as the NC State men finished 4th at the Southeast Regional XC Championships, sending just one man, the since-departed JP Flavin, to the national meet.
In 2021, the Wolfpack men were likely a top-40 squad which is a somewhat respectable tier to be in, nationally. Still, last fall ended the program’s six-year streak of national meet qualifications, and it wasn’t like their regional meet performance was an outlier from the rest of the season.
But in 2022, things could look dramatically different for the Raleigh-based men.
Even with the loss of JP Flavin and second scorer Gavin Gaynor, the Wolfpack are in line to bounce back in a major way. With the progression of some promising youngsters, the introduction of talented transfers and the return of what we can assume are some strategically redshirted low-sticks, NC State could be scary-good this fall.
We'll admit, the loss of Flavin, who was 11th at Joe Piane and 50th at the NCAA XC Championships, stings...a lot. He was NC State’s most consistent runner last year and probably their only true low-stick.
It's a similar story for the versatile Gavin Gaynor who appeared in three NCAA XC Championships during his time with the 'Pack.
However, perhaps the most numbing loss is that of Nate Kawalec, a middle lineup scorer last year who appeared primed for a breakout fall season after running 13:39 (5k) outdoors this spring. Kawalec was almost included in this preview before announcing his intentions to join Sean Carlson’s upstart Tennessee program as a graduate transfer.
And when you compare last year's results to these recent departures, it's hard to feel optimistic about this team being any better in 2022 than they were in 2021.
Of course, when you dig a bit deeper, that narrative changes quite a bit.
Given the positives that I touched on earlier, long-time Coach Rollie Geiger may not be too worried about those aforementioned scoring losses. Although none of the men on his current roster raced at the NCAA XC Championships last fall, there is an extremely valuable veteran presence returning to this team thanks to Hannes Burger, Robinson Snider and Ian Shanklin.
That latter names gives NC State a legitimate low-stick, one who rivals that of many of the other teams in this range of our rankings. In fact, one could suggest that he was potentially snubbed from an XC Top 50 rankings.
Shanklin did not race on the grass last fall and was not at his very best on the oval in 2022. Even so, there’s nothing glaring on his recent resume that leaves us with any major concern.
The last time we saw Shanklin on a cross country course, he earned a very respectable 54th place at the 2021 NCAA Winter XC Championships. However, leading up to that performance, Shanklin had a season suggesting that he was at an even higher national standing.
During the pandemic-altered 2020 cross country season, the Wolfpack veteran was 3rd at the Virginia Tech Invitational, 4th at the Wolfpack Invitational and 2nd at the ACC XC Championships in October! That latter result was monumental as it suggested Shanklin that could be a top-20 talent, nationally.
However, it’s possible that the NC State veteran lost a bit of his fitness in the near five months between that silver medal result and his national meet effort.
Fortunately, Shanklin had already proven himself as an All-American when he placed 39th at the 2019 NCAA XC Championships after finishing 3rd at the ACC XC Championships that year. And if you had any doubts about Shanklin’s consistency or linear progression, then just know that he placed 54th at the 2018 NCAA XC Championships as well as 75th at the 2017 NCAA XC Championships.
Unbelievably, we haven’t even mentioned the best result of his career. At the 2021 NCAA Outdoor Championships, Shanklin placed 9th overall in a historically fast 5000 meter field en route to a huge 13:23 PR.
If he returns to that form in 2022, then Shanklin will once again emerge as one of the best front-runners in the ACC.
Of course, Shanklin isn't the sole reason why we have NC State ranked at TSR #22. He'll still need help in order offset the losses of both Flavin and Gaynor.
Luckily, a pair of veteran returnees seem more than primed to do exactly that.
Hannes Burger is listed on NC State's 2022 roster despite not having raced in over a year. Perhaps this was an intentional redshirt move by the experienced Coach Geiger as he anticipated the 'Pack being less competitive in 2021 -- similar to what Arkansas did with Gilbert Boit in 2019.
At any rate, Burger’s presence will be an invaluable one. The German distance runner has posted solid marks across the board, earning times of 3:44 for 1500 meters, 13:51 for 5000 meters and 8:51 for the steeplechase.
However, more importantly, he was 17th at the 2020 ACC XC Championships and later 86th at the winter cross country national meet, finishing as the team’s second runner behind Shanklin.
On paper, Burger's reintroduction to this team is huge. He is fairly consistent and should prove to be a clear upgrade at the second or third scoring spots in this lineup.
Another graduate student on this roster whose eligibility we were initially unsure about is Robinson Snider. The NC State runner had a breakout season on the track this past year, running 13:49 (5k) and 28:58 (10k), two times which signal a clear improvement in his overall fitness.
Snider appears to be in line for an improvement on a relatively unassuming 2021 cross country campaign were he was 42nd at Joe Piane and 32nd at the ACC XC Championships. He’s long been a solid lineup piece in the past, placing in the top-35 at SEC XC Championships (twice) with Ole Miss, but some type of jump should be in store for him this season.
NOTE: We reached out to Coach Geiger for clarification on eligibility, but received no response, leaving us to assume that their updated 2022 cross country roster is accurate.
Those three tenured Wolfpack members are going to be instrumental in the season-long success of this team. Not only will the team's scoring value immediately improve when these men toe the line, but the reliability and stability of their lineup will likely be greater as well.
But three men can't make a complete lineup which is why NC State is likely thankful for the reinforcements that they have in the form of transfers David Vorbach (via Columbia) and Travis Koekemoer (via Campbell).
Vorbach was a decent runner on the grass in 2021, but had a breakout indoor track season this past winter when he ran 8:00 (3k) and 13:47 (5k).
Koekemoer, meanwhile, has never actually run NCAA cross country before. He has, however, flashed desirable range with marks of 3:46 for 1500 meters, 14:18 for 5000 meters and 8:50 for the steeplechase.
That last mark should be translatable to measurable cross country success...we think.
Regardless, both transfers should figure into NC State’s varsity lineup this fall. They bring highly valuable depth to a team that saw noticeable gaps in their lineup throughout last year. They also have exciting upside, specifically Koekemoer who could be a high-impact name behind Shanklin.
And luckily for NC State, the improved depth isn't expected to stop there. Those new transfers will be supported, and perhaps even pushed, by some of the Wolfpack’s exciting in-house developmental pieces.
Brett Gardner looks to be in the same breakout camp as former teammate Nate Kawalec after he ran a massive 8:37 steeplechase PR for a bronze medal at this ACC Outdoor Championships this past spring (he also ran 3:43 for 1500 meters).
That is a huge result which suggests that Gardner could be more than just a backend contributor for this team in 2022. His rise will be even more important with Kawalec’s last-minute defection to Knoxville, Tennessee.
Another rising junior, Ian Harrison, was the Wolfpack’s fourth scorer at the ACC XC Championships last year and has since broken 14:00 in the 5000 meters. Other contributors last year were 14:03 man Daniel McGoey as well as 1:49 man Zach Hughes.
One final name to keep an eye on is Kevin Antczak. He hasn't acclimated to the NCAA level as quickly as a few others, but the veteran has a decent 5k PR of 14:24 and was a massive talent coming out of high school after placing 8th at the Foot Locker XC Championships and 24th at the NXN Championships, both in 2019 as a senior.
With Shanklin to lead the way, established veteran scorers like Burger and Robinson returning, high-upside transfers in Vorbach and Koekemoer joining the team and some improving depth pieces who are coming of age (namely Gardner), the NC State men should have a very strong outlook entering the 2022 cross season.
This group absolutely has the makings of a national qualifying team, and there could be multiple top-100 talents in this lineup beyond Shanklin. In fact, it's possible that the NC State men could comfortably exceed this ranking if almost everyone continues on an upward trajectory (which is admittedly hard to do).
That, however, is all assuming that Shanklin and Burger return to top form from the last time that we saw them on the grass and that Burger and Robinson do indeed have eligibility. Even so, this team may have enough solid depth and potential for improvement to be competitive with a less-than-his-best Shanklin and without Burger and Robinson.
It’s extremely unlikely that the Wolfpack men will be anywhere near the caliber of their women’s team or even their own 11th place finish at the 2018 NCAA XC Championships. Last year's results were far from great and when you look at this year's roster, were banking on a lot of men to deliver on their supposedly great upside.
For those reasons, we pulled NC State back to TSR #22 in our rankings.
Still, we’re bullish about NC State's chances of replicating something more akin to their 23rd place finish in the 2020-21 season or their 26th place finish from the 2019 national meet. But at the very least, we see them returning to their seventh NCAA Championships in eight years.
With returning experience, internal progression and the infusion (or reintegration) of some low-sticks and high-end middle lineup pieces, the NC State men are primed to be one of the 25 best cross country teams in the NCAA this fall.