12. Iona Gaels Coach: Ricardo Santos Notable Departures: Kieran Clements Notable Additions: Jordan Brannan, Graham Baird Projected Scoring Five: Gilbert Kirui (SR) [TSR#25], Chartt Miller (Rs. SR) [TSR#26], Johannes Motschmann (SR), Liam Dee (JR), Jac Hopkins (JR) Analysis: For years now, big-name schools like Oregon, Colorado, Stanford, and Wisconsin have dominated the powerhouse program discussion. Their constant success and strong legacies have made them the focal point of NCAA distance running. Yet, one team that typically doesn't get the love it deserves is Iona. Despite their small school status, the Gaels have created a legacy of their own with a mix of effective recruiting and a development of depth. In 2017, there is no reason that this team can't continue to find success. The Gaels began their 2016 cross country season at the Paul Short Invite where they would have to battle with a dangerous Georgetown squad to claim the team title. However, despite the firepower other teams in the field held, Iona routed the competition and walked away with a team score of 34 points, 81 points better than the 2nd place Hoyas. The best part in all of this was that the Gaels didn't even run their ace Chartt Miller! It was arguably the best season opener of any team in the NCAA. The Wisconsin Invite was the next stop on their 2016 schedule and the competition there would be a bit more intense than what they found at Paul Short. Still, the Gaels were up to the challenge as Kieran Clements and Gilbert Kirui put together a monster performance where they finished 7th and 12th overall. Johannes Motschmann and Liam Dee would follow with 47th and 66th place finishes. However, the one weak area came at the 5th man spot as Andrew Tario fell to 108th overall. Nonetheless, Iona would end up finishing a very impressive 5th place in the team standings as they defeated rising programs like UCLA, Portland, and Iowa State. You also have to consider that they didn't run Chartt Miller either... Championship season eventually approached and the Gaels were ready to handle business. After an easy sweep of their conference meet (where Chartt Miller returned to action), Iona stepped into the Northeast Regional Championships which held the 2015 NCAA champions (Syracuse). Although they would end up in 2nd overall, the goal was to cement themselves in a top two spot and comfortably qualify for Nationals. Sure enough, the Gaels did just that. Their final test of the season would take place at the NCAA Championships, a meet that has historically not always been friendly to Iona's postseason aspirations of making the team podium. Luckily, Chartt Miller was back on the squad and would most likely give the Gaels a boost from their finish at Wisconsin. Unfortunately, the race didn't play out exactly as expected. Not a single Iona individual finished the day as an All-American and it seemed like Chartt Miller still had some rust to shake off from his late season start. Iona's finishes in the team scoring would be 34 (Clements), 50 (Miller), 68 (Kirui), 74 (Motschmann), and 93 (Dee) which was good enough for a 10th place finish in the team standings. While it may not have been a perfect race, 10th place was still a very solid and respectable finish. Iona was also one of only 8 teams that had all five of their scorers in the top 100. With 2016 behind them and the 2017 season ahead, the Gaels are looking strong as they return all but one individual from last year (Kieran Clements). Chartt Miller and Gilbert Kirui will look to lead a hungry Iona team that is ready to prove that they can fight for a spot on the podium. The great thing about Iona is that although they lose Clements, they have plenty of experience of racing without an ace. Chartt Miller was absent for the entire 2016 regular season and they still performed incredibly well. With a strong 1-2 punch up front, Iona is plenty fine on firepower and low-sticks. The following scorers don't change that much either as Johannaes Motschmann and Liam Dee seem to be talented individuals who continue to learn and grow. In fact, Liam Dee just became a sub-four minute miler this past winter and also tagged on personal bests of 8:02 in the 3k and 14:04 in the 5k. While track times may not always translate to success during cross country, his performances is enough indication that he'll enter 2017 in great fitness. Admittedly, this duo will need to be a bit more consistent while also being able to close the gap between their finishes in the big meets like Wisconsin and NCAA's. Sometimes, that just comes with being another year older. Like so many other teams, the 5th spot is a bit of a question mark as there are multiple individuals who could step up to have a role with this team. Jac Hopkins, Andrew Tario, and Brandon Allen are all guys that made appearances in Iona's top five last year. If I had to choose, I'm taking Hopkins who worked his way into the starting seven during 2016 and is now an upperclassman with a lot more room to grow. Outside of those seven individuals, this team is still incredibly deep. Two incoming recruits, Jordan Brannan and Graham Baird, are cross country stars in their own right. While in high school, Brannan ran under 15 minutes for the 5k and also became an All-American on the track. As for Baird, he represented Canada at the Junior World Cross Country Championships where he finished 7th overall. The weapons on this team are endless which should give the Gaels some comfort knowing that they have support at the back end of their top seven. It's tough to keep this team out of the top 10, but their inconsistency at NCAA's and the loss of Kieran Clements is just a bit too much for me to consider otherwise. That said, I am more than willing to move the Gaels into the top 10 if they can duplicate their 2016 results. With two established aces, a crowd of experienced depth, and a legacy to uphold, Iona is not a team to underestimate in 2017. #gzatlin #ncaa #Top25 #analysis #rankings

13. Wisconsin Badgers Coach: Mick Byrne Notable Departures: Malachy Schrobilgen, Russell Sandvold Notable Additions: Finn Gessner, Seth Hirsch, Noah Jacobs, Tannor Wagner Projected Scoring Five: Morgan McDonald (SR) [TSR#3], Olin Hacker (Rs. SO), Joe Hardy (SR), Ben Eidenschink (Rs. SO), Oliver Hoare (SO) Analysis: When people think of the Wisconsin Badgers, they think of an elite powerhouse program with a reputation for overwhelming success that is led by a legendary coach. That perception certainly won't be changing in 2017 as the men from Madison, Wisconsin are primed for another strong season. The Badgers entered 2016 hungry for revenge after a surprising 2015 season where they failed to make Nationals for the first time in 43 years. In typical Wisconsin fashion, the Badgers didn't start their season until the Wisconsin Invite which took place in their own backyard. Of course, like any first big meet, there is usually some rust to shake off. Wisconsin would finish a respectable 11th place overall, but the glaring outlier in the results was that low-stick Malachy Schrobilgen ended the day with a DNF. Luckily, Morgan McDonald made up for that with an incredible 3rd place finish. The other scorers placed 60th, 77th, 81st, and 92nd. BIG 10's would only be the second race of Wisconsin's season. There, the Badgers emerged victorious as McDonald took the conference crown while Schrobilgen placed 5th overall. The final three scorers put together solid performances with finishes of 12, 21, and 24. The Great Lakes Regional Championships weren't much different as Wisconsin once again took the title (this time with much more ease). In fact, the results were scary similar to BIG 10's with Schrobilgen and McDonald going 1-2 while Hacker, Hardy, and Eidenshink finished 12th, 15th, and 21st. The Badgers were on fire heading into Nationals and there may not have been a more dangerous team than them. Mick Byrne and his squad entered NCAA's ready to prove that they were a different team than they were in 2015. Sure enough, that was the case as Wisconsin pushed themselves to the highest level that they had been all year. McDonald placed 6th while Schrobilgen finished 20th (both in the team scoring). The final three scorers finished 51st, 52nd, and 127th overall to give the Badgers an 8th place finish in the team standings. Their big-time finish certainly validated one thing: Wisconsin was still a powerhouse program. 2016 was the rebound year for Wisconsin, but now we must ask ourselves if they can be just as strong in 2017. In my mind, that is more than possible. One of the most talked about runners in the NCAA this summer has been Morgan McDonald. After a disappointing end to his outdoor track season, the Aussie Badger ran a mind-boggling 13:15 5k to qualify for the IAAF World Championships. With that performance, McDonald has established himself as a legitimate threat to win the NCAA XC title. His importance to this team can not be emphasized enough. Behind McDonald will be a slew of talented young individuals. That said, don't mistake their youth for inexperience. Hoare, Hacker, and Eidenshink have shown tremendous poise during the championship season and have progressed very well over time. One of these guys is bound to have a breakout cross country season and if I had to guess, I would pick Hoare to be that guy after he ran a 3:59 mile post-NCAA's earlier this summer. Joe Hardy will complete this top five as an experienced senior who has now run at the National Championships twice in his career. He has been a very reliable scorer over the years and should continue to do so in 2017. Yet, what really completes this squad is the phenomenal recruiting class which includes four individuals who have 3200 PR's under 9 minutes. Three of them have run sub-15 minutes in the 5k while Wagner was close behind in 15:05. This recruiting class is simply too deep and too talented to not have an impact in 2017. What's even better is that a lot of these recruits are cross country oriented athletes who have multiple All-American honors to their name. With a class like this, Wisconsin will be strong far beyond just the 2017 season... Admittedly, the loss of Malachy Schrobilgen will not be easy to overcome. He and McDonald made up one of the best 1-2 punches in the NCAA and consistently gave the Badgers a low-stick scorer since his freshman year. Schrobilgen no longer being on the roster is a big reason why I have the men at #13 in the rankings. Luckily, Wisconsin has a history of producing multiple elite-level runners. McDonald, Schrobilgen, VanVoorhis, Ahmed, Darling, and Connor are Wisconsin legends who have all come out of Madison within the past five years. I would be very surprised if we didn't see another individual step into the low-stick role that is now vacant. Of course, something like that happening is not always a given. I like Wisconsin a lot this year and you should too. McDonald is leading a young and budding team that is coming off of a very underrated 2016 season. If they can close the gap between their final three scorers and find another low-stick, then this is a team that could threaten to make the team podium. #Top25 #gzatlin #rankings #analysis #ncaa

14. Boise State Broncos Coach: Corey Ihmels Notable Departures: N/A Notable Additions: Ahmed Muhumed, Leif Everson, Matthew Park Projected Scoring Five: Yusuke Uchikoshi (SR) [TSR#19], Michael Vennard (SR), Miler Haller (Rs. SO), Andrew Rafla (Rs. JR), Ahmed Muhumed (FR) Analysis: One of the more dangerous team in the NCAA is Boise State. The Broncos have built an arsenal of top-tier talent that are capable of competing with some of the best in the nation while also having the depth to securely stay at the top of the results. In 2017, there may not be a team more complete than BSU. Last fall, we saw the Broncos begin their season at Roy Griak where they would face off with several conference and regional rivals. Despite the harsh conditions and difficult hills, BSU thrived as they placed third overall behind only Portland and Iowa State. Yusuke Uchikoshi had an outstanding race by placing 7th overall while the other four scorers placed 13, 24, 31, and 37. It was a strong first race for the men in blue. While the success at Roy Griak was exciting, the challenges at Wisconsin weren’t nearly as easy. Uchikoshi and Miler Haller would once again lead the team by placing 33rd and 36th overall. Unfortunately, none of the final three scorers would break into the top 100 as they finished 109th, 117th, and 118th. The Broncos would finish 15th overall in a field where they could have been top 10. Michael Vennard, the Boise State star from 2016, was not in the lineup. With the regular season behind them, the Broncos turned their focus to the Mountain West Conference Championships (which they would host). It was there that Uchikoshi delivered on the big stage as he crossed the line in first to take the title over Jerrell Mock of Colorado State. The Broncos would follow suit with finishes of 3, 8, 12, and 17. Boise State would go on to upset Colorado State and take the team title by 7 points. The difference maker in that meet? Michael Vennard, who seemingly returned back to top form with a 3rd place finish. Jump to the West Region Championships and the narrative quickly changes. No one on Boise State had a great day with team finishes of 21, 38, 40, 54, and 66. Michael Vennard? He was a DNF once again... The Broncos would finish 7th overall and although the region was incredibly deep, Boise State still had enough Kolas points to get themselves, as well as the teams ahead of them, into NCAA’s. The Broncos ended their season at NCAA’s with a 19th place finish to cap off the season. Uchikoshi finished an incredible 18th overall (15th in the team scoring) while the rest of his teammates struggled to close the gaps as they finished 76, 88, 141, and 158. It wasn’t the finish Boise State was looking for. 2016 was a roller coaster season for BSU as consistency proved to be the key weak spot of this program. Still, the positives that come with the upcoming 2017 season far outweigh any flaws the Broncos had last fall. First off, it’s probably important to point out that every single member from last year’s top seven will be returning this year. That includes low-stick Yusuke Uchikoshi who has established himself as a clear front-runner in the NCAA. He’ll most likely be flanked by Miler Haller and Andrew Rafla who often found themselves at the #2 and #3 spots throughout the 2016 season. While Uchikoshi and Haller do make a formidable 1-2, it’s the success of Michael Vennard that will determine the direction of this team in 2017. In 2015, Vennard was an absolute stud who placed 3rd at Roy Griak, 17th at the Wisconsin Invite, and 5th at the Mountain West Conference Championships. His youth caught up to him in the postseason, but the potential he showed caught the attention of fans around the NCAA. Unfortunately, 2016 was just not his year with a mix of poor finishes, two DNF’s, and one out-of-place 3rd place finish at the conference championships. If Michael Vennard can replicate the success he had in 2015, Boise State all of the sudden becomes a very dangerous squad with two elite low-sticks. The final scorer could be anyone as the Broncos are a team that boast depth far beyond five men with guys like Chandler Austin, Rhys Park, and incoming freshman Ahmed Muhumed. If I had to choose, I’m looking for Muhumed to have a major impact on this team this year. Underclassmen typically do pretty well with BSU and with personal best times of 8:25 (3k) and 14:56, Muhumed could be another key scorer as he develops under Coach Ihmels. There are so many athletes on this team who are extremely undervalued and have the potential to be lethal scorers. Of course, they’re only an effective team if they can run well together on the same day. The Broncos must become much more consistent in 2017 if they want to be a top 10 team (which they are capable of doing). Luckily, this is a program that doesn’t need to worry about replacing any low-sticks or building their depth. If they can continuously perform like they did at Roy Griak and the Mountain West Conference Championships, then this is a squad that could very easily challenge for a top two spot at regionals. #gzatlin #ncaa #analysis #rankings #Top25

15. Washington State Cougars Coach: Wayne Phipps Notable Departures: John Whelan Notable Additions: Luke Schilter, Ado Amir, Matthew Watkins Projected Scoring Five: Michael Williams (SR) [TSR#29], Sam Levora (SR), Chandler Teigen (JR), Nathan Wadhwani (JR), Nathan Tadesse (JR) Analysis: There may not be a team in the NCAA that is more underappreciated than the Washington State Cougars. Coach Wayne Phipps has created a program of never-ending depth while also developing national caliber athletes to lead his team. 2016 was a great season for the Cougars and we should only expect more success in 2017. Washington State’s 2016 season began at the SunDodger Invite, a race that essentially came down to Washington State and the University of Washington. Although the Huskies were able to get Colby Gilbert the win, the Cougars simply had too much depth as their pack running overwhelmed Washington with finishes of 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, and 9 (in the team scoring). What was even crazier was that low-stick John Whelan ran unattached and wasn’t even calculated in the team score despite finishing 4th overall. It was a great start to WSU’s season. The next challenge took place at Notre Dame where Washington State’s pack became a bit more spread out. Whelan and Williams did an outstanding job up front by placing 8th and 16th overall while Sam Levora followed in a respectable 36th place finish. Their 4th scorer, Nathan Wadhwani, finished strong as well in 48th place overall. Unfortunately, their final scorer would fall behind with a finish of 81st overall. WSU finished 7th in the team standings with 189 points. 4th place Providence was only seven points away. Although the Cougars had some 5th man troubles, it became clear that this team was a legitimate threat to their NCAA counterparts. If they could manage to tighten their pack and improve their 5th scoring spot, then they could easily upset some of the biggest names in the country. The Wisconsin Invite was the next test to see if WSU could keep their scoring five together and contend with some of the best. Fortunately, the result was much stronger than at Notre Dame as Williams and Whelan once again did their job by placing 15th and 23rd overall. Approximately 30 seconds behind Williams and Whelan were Chandler Teigen and Sam Levora who placed a respectable 67th and 68th overall. However, that 5th man continued to be a weak spot with a finish of 110th overall. Still, the Cougars thrived and finished with a strong 9th place overall ahead of Colorado State, Wisconsin, and other top-tier programs. The Cougars were beginning to find their groove as they entered the postseason, which was a good thing when you consider that they were in one of the most competitive conferences in the nation: the PAC 12. Obviously, the PAC 12 field was significantly smaller than the Wisconsin Invite with only nine teams competing. The smaller field ended up hurt the effectiveness of Washington State’s pack as they faltered to 5th overall behind Colorado, Stanford, UCLA, and Oregon. Their result at PAC 12’s would be very similar to their West Region Championship finish as Washington State once again placed 5th overall. However, this time they had closed the gap between Oregon as they finished only 21 points behind compared to the 36 point differential at PAC 12’s. The larger sized fields were clearly benefitting the Cougars which was a good sign as they arrived at Nationals. Sure enough, the Cougars had their best race of the season. Michael Williams threw down a huge All-American performance and led the way for his teammates with finishes of 24, 49, 90, 91, and 116 (in the team scoring). Washington State would place 14th overall, only seven points off of 12th place Oklahoma State. It was hard to imagine that a team that placed 7th at Notre Dame and barely got into Nationals placed 14th at NCAA’s and were only two points behind Portland. There were plenty of breakout teams in 2016, but one of the more notable squads had to be Washington State. Williams and Whelan turned into true low-sticks while Sam Levora and Chandler Teigen proved to be reliable scorers at the 3 and 4 spots. Yes, the 5th man spot did show some weakness at times, but it never held the Cougars back from staying competitive. Washington State may have been a bit of a surprise in 2016, but no one will overlook them in 2017 as they return six of their top seven from last year. The only loss from that top seven comes from low-stick John Whelan who gave the Cougars a nice 1-2 punch when paired with Michael Williams. Although the loss of Whelan will hurt, the Cougars are now another year older and have experience on their side. Their scoring five will most likely not have any underclassmen, and if they do, it will probably be Justin Janke, a rising sophomore who ran under 9 minutes for the two mile while in high school. Michael Williams, although a tad inconsistent, has proven that he can compete with the best in the nation and will continue to provide his WSU teammates with a comfortable low score to rally around. Meanwhile, Levora and Teigen are two guys who work together very well. They rarely gave the Cougars a bad performance in 2016. Nathan Wadhwani, the projected 4th scorer, was in and out of WSU’s top five throughout 2016. Like Williams, he’ll need to improve his consistency as well as close the gap between him, Levora, and Teigen. Luckily, that seems like a very realistic goal that he can achieve. The 5th man is where things become a little tricky as there was always constant movement at the back end of Washington State’s pack throughout last year. At the moment, Nathan Tadesse and Paul Ryan seem to be the likely candidates to take the 5th spot as well as Justin Janke. Whoever takes over the 5th spot doesn’t need to be a superstar, but they do need to show some improvement and stay consistent. If they can accomplish that, then Washington State could pull off some major upsets throughout the season. I am a big fan of teams that are deeper than just their five scorers. Washington State is one of those teams as it seems like anyone could step up to take on a new role. I am hoping that they can find another low-stick to compliment Williams at the front, but that won’t be the deciding factor as to whether or not this team can prosper in 2017. Simply put, if the Cougars can build on what they did last year, then their conference and regional rivals shouldn’t be feeling too comfortable. #rankings #Top25 #ncaa #analysis #gzatlin

16. UCLA Bruins Coach: Forest Braden Notable Departures: Ferdinand Edman, Jonah Diaz, Austin O'Neil Notable Additions: Robert Brandt (?) Projected Scoring Five: Robert Brandt (JR) [TSR#36], Colin Burke (Rs. SO), Garrett Reynolds (SO), Daniel De La Torre (SR), John Carter Blunt (SO) Analysis: UCLA is one of those teams that continues to find a way to stay competitive. Despite losing ace Lane Werley to graduation, the Bruins only got better in 2016 with exceptional pack running, their new-found low-stick Ferdinand Edmand, and strong depth. There are certainly a lot of changes happening again in 2017, but if any team can overcome that, it's the Bruins. UCLA's 2016 season began at the Roy Griak Invite where the Bruins put together a very strong performance. Ferdinand Edman led the way for the team with an 8th place finish while the rest of squad placed 26th, 29th, 39th, and 69th. Clearly, the drop off at their 5th scorer didn't help the Bruins. However, they were still able to walk away with a 6th place team finish only 6 points away from Michigan State and 11 points away from Michigan. The Wisconsin Invite was the next stop on the schedule and this time, the end result would be much more impressive. Edman came up big for the team once again with a 10th place finish while Jonah Diaz finished 27th overall. The final three scorers would place 57, 68, and 83. Their scorers may have been relatively spread out, but UCLA would still finish 6th in the team standings with 246 points, only 6 points away from 5th place Iona. Things were trending in the right direction for the Bruins. They still needed to tighten the gap among their top five, but it was tough to be disappointed with their racing so far. Two weeks later would mark the start of the postseason with the PAC 12 Championships. One of the best conferences in the nation would host elite programs like Stanford, Colorado, and Oregon. For some, UCLA was an afterthought. Colorado would eventually go on to pull off the upset over Stanford and win the PAC 12 title. However, the real surprise to many was seeing Oregon struggle while UCLA pulled ahead for third. The Bruins pack running was finally coming together. Edman placed 5th overall while the next three scorers stayed together for finishes of 10, 11, and 12. The 5th man? A very respectable 20th place overall. UCLA would finish with 58 points, only 11 off of Stanford and 17 off of Colorado. Even after PAC 12's the Bruins continued to thrive. At the West Regional Championships, UCLA would place 3rd overall ahead of Oregon and easily earn a spot to NCAA's. The pack running, although not as tight as PAC 12's, still paid off with scorers placing 5th, 14th, 26th, 31st, and 37th. In a region filled with high-level programs, a spread like that is pretty strong. The final test would come at NCAA's and, although their finish wasn't quite as strong as their other races, they still put together a very respectable performance. Ferdinand Edman capped off his senior season with an All-American 14th place finish while Jonah Diaz continued to be a supportive #2 man by placing 52nd overall. UCLA's top five would finish 11, 39, 100, 113, and 115 (in the team scoring) to place 15th in the team standings. 2016 treated the Bruins well and it showed that they were capable of rebounding from the loss of key scorers. That's a good sign for 2017 when you consider that Ferdinand Edman, Jonah Diaz, and Austin O'Neil no longer have cross country eligibility. The loss of three scorers is not an easy thing to overcome for any team, especially when two of them were your #1 and #2. So how can UCLA be ranked 16th after losing a large portion of their 2016 squad? The answer lies in their underclassmen. One of the top returners on this team is Colin Burke, a rising redshirt sophomore who often found himself at the #3 spot last year. He placed 11th at PAC 12's and 57th at Wisconsin. His consistency makes him very valuable and his youth indicates that there is still a lot more growth we could see from him. Behind Burke will be Garrett Reynolds and Daniel De La Torre, two long distance studs who found success on the track this past spring season. De La Torre earned a PR of 13:46 while Reynolds ran 13:57 as a true freshman. Although their cross country performances may be modest, their improvement on the track is too significant to ignore. Like Burke, Reynolds is a rising sophomore who should continue to prosper with the Bruins as he gains more experience. The fifth projected scorer is up in the air between Myles Smith and John Carter Blunt. On one hand, Smith brings experience to the top five and has been on the big stage multiple times before. On the other hand, Blunt was one of the top recruits coming into 2016 with personal bests of 8:57 and 14:41 in high school. We didn't get to see him run cross country last year, but he could be a dangerous weapon and bring a bit more firepower to the Bruins this fall. All of the names I just mentioned will help this team stay competitive and return to the NCAA Championships. However, the potential addition of a new ace could be the game changer for this team. *Rumors on LetsRun.com have suggested that former California runner, Robert Brandt, will be transferring to rival UCLA. Brandt is ranked 36th in our TSR Top 50. These rumors are unconfirmed as UCLA's 2017 roster does not have Brandt listed while California's roster is still from 2016 and has not been updated. A lot of this is speculation which is why the Bruins are only ranked at 16. However, if Brandt is in fact going to UCLA, then this completely changes the conversation. The addition of Brandt would be the perfect replacement for Ferdinand Edman as the Bruins look to find a low-stick replacement for him. Of course, transfers are never a sure-fire thing. Having to adjust to new training partners, coaches, and atmosphere takes some time to get used to. Still, having his name potentially on their roster is a huge development. Although the Bruins lose a lot of key seniors, they still make up for it with budding young talent who will be in the programs for quite a while. Like last year, UCLA won't be rebuilding this year: they'll reload. *Flotrack Has Confirmed That Robert Brandt Has Transferred To UCLA #rankings #top25 #ncaa #analysis #gzatlin

17. Iowa State Cyclones Coach: Martin Smith Notable Departures: Kevin Hoyos, Christian DeLago Notable Additions: Tanner Norman, Milo Greder, Patrick Bose Projected Scoring Five: Thomas Pollard (Rs. SO) [TSR#32], Andrew Jordan (SO), Josef Andrews (JR), Toby Hardwick (SR), Dan Curts (JR) Analysis: One of the teams on my radar for 2016 were the Iowa State Cyclones. They had made some crucial additions to their squad with Syracuse transfer Kevin Hoyos, Thomas Pollard coming off of a redshirt season, and a top 10 recruit in Andrew Jordan. I believed they would be a top 25 team in the nation, but the success they ended up having was above and beyond my expectations. The Cyclones began their 2016 season at the Roy Griak Invite where they would face some of the deepest teams in the nation such as Portland, Boise State, Michigan, Michigan State, and many more. That, however, didn't intimidate the young team. The end results would show Iowa State in second overall with an incredibly tight pack that placed 17, 18, 19, 20, and 23. Only Portland would finish ahead of ISU's 97 points with a score of 69. Iowa State later took their talents to the Wisconsin Invite where they would once again face Portland as well as other elite teams from around the nation. Although their pack wouldn't stay as tight, the result was just as impressive as Hoyos and Pollard led the way with finishes of 21st and 25th. The final three scorers placed 52nd (Andrews), 65th (Jordan), and 97th (Hardwick). ISU would finish a respectable 8th place overall in the team standings with Portland only three points ahead of them this time. It wasn't perfect a perfect performance, but the Cyclones were able to show that they were more than just a one race wonder. Fast forward to BIG 12's where Iowa State looked to play spoiler to favorite Oklahoma State. As the race unfolded, it became clear that the Cowboys were vulnerable to an upset due to a slower pace. ISU gave a strong effort, but came up short when the scores were tallied as Oklahoma State retained their conference title, 36 to 49. Even though the Cyclones failed to grab the conference win, they were still favorites to grab an auto-lock spot to NCAA's at the Mid-West Regional Championships. Of course, things don't always work out like they're supposed to. The ISU pack failed to stay together while their 5th man fell back to 46th overall. The team would finish 4th in the team standings. Luckily, the Cyclones had accumulated enough Kolas points throughout the season to get them a spot at the Big Dance. They would live to race another day. The pressure would be on at Nationals to see if the Cyclones could really hold their own against some of the top teams in the nation. Sure enough, that was the case. Despite having a young squad that had never run at NCAA's before, the Cyclones still put together a solid performance as Pollard and Hoyos led the team with finishes of 35 and 44 (in the team scoring). The final three scorers would place 79, 108, and 118 to help Iowa State finish 16th overall. For a team that was so young and inexperienced, you had to commend them on their impressive 2016 season. As we enter the fall of 2017, Iowa State stands out as a program that could continue their success from a year ago. Thomas Pollard is someone who this team can lean on as he rarely had a poor performance in 2016. I also like the promise that Andrew Jordan shows. He should be able to improve quite a bit as he matures and further acclimates himself to collegiate training and racing. I expect this duo to be the strong 1-2 punch that Hoyos and Pollard were last season. Josef Andrews is a key piece to the ISU program. He was incredibly consistent and gave the Cyclones some solid performances as just a sophomore. 20th at Roy Griak, 52nd at Wisconsin, and 8th at BIG 12's is a great resume for a team's 3rd scorer. The same goes for Dan Curts who is beginning to translate his success on the track to the dirt and grass. He made the occasional appearance in ISU's top five last year and I expect him to do the same in 2017. He'll need to improve his consistency, but that comes with time and maturity. As for Toby Hardwick, his status is a little unclear. Iowa Track Beat (@IowaTrackBeat) tweeted a few weeks ago that there were a few notable misses in their fall camp, one of them being Hardwick. We won't know for sure until the 2017 roster is published, but assuming he does return, he'll provide some consistency and support for ISU's top five. He's been a great leader for this team over the past three years and brings some experience to a squad that doesn't hold a lot of seniors. Although Iowa State returns a heavy portion of their 2016 squad, the loss of low-stick Kevin Hoyos is still a tough blow. Making up for his absence will certainly not be easy. The Cyclones will also lose Christian DeLago, an ISU veteran who brought a lot of leadership and guidance to the younger guys on this squad. Luckily, this team is still very deep with guys like Sam Clausnitzer and John Nownes who made appearances on ISU's top seven throughout the 2016 season. We could even see recruits like Tanner Norman, an NXN All-American and Colorado state champion, have an impact in just their first year of competition. Andrew Jordan was able to do it, why not them? We are in that point of the rankings where it's hard to really identify any major flaws in these programs. Iowa State is a great all-around team with a lot of untapped potential and I believe they will thrive after visiting the NCAA Championships last year. If they continue to embrace their pack running and see growth in their younger guys, this squad could be a top 10 team by season's end. #rankings #Top25 #gzatlin #analysis #ncaa

18. UTEP Miners Coach: Paul Ereng Notable Departures: Evans Kiprono, Cosmas Boit, Emmanuel Korir Notable Additions: TBD Projected Scoring Five: Jonah Koech (JR) [TSR#22], Antony Kosgei (JR), Michael Saruni (SO), Daniel Cheruiyot (SR), TBD Analysis: This will likely be the most debated team ranking of our entire top 25. Why? Because at the moment, UTEP's roster only lists five men. The catch? One of those men, Emmanuel Korir, just went pro, leaving the Miners with just four eligible athletes. So how on earth can this team be ranked 18th in the nation for 2017? It's important to remember that before the start of the 2016 cross country season, UTEP's roster only listed five individuals. Coach Ereng knew that five men wouldn't be enough to sustain a competitive program and was able to get two late additions to his squad (Korir and Saruni). Because a lot of his recruits are foreigners, the athletes typically must go through a rigorous process to establish temporary residence in the US. That's why the roster may not be updated until later on in the season. The roster numbers are obviously a concern, but the same could be said about the 2016 season where the Miners established themselves as one of the top teams in the nation. After sweeping the Texas Tech Open and Lori Fitzgerald Invite, the first challenge of 2016 would take place at the Notre Dame Invite. Despite a strong and deep field, the Miners walked away with a runner-up team finish. Jonah Koech and Antony Kosgei gave UTEP a killer 1-2 punch by placing 5th and 7th overall. The next three would place 18, 28, and 41 for a team score of 99 points. Only Ole Miss had a better score with a total of 83 points. The next stop would be Pre-Nationals and the result wouldn't be as strong. The Miners lack of depth was exposed in a larger field and they saw the results in the team score. Despite their top three placing 9th, 10th, and 32nd, their next two would place 72nd and 141st. UTEP would leave Terre Haute with a 6th place team finish and no Kolas points... Luckily, the transition to the postseason would favor UTEP. The 7-man squad entered the Conference USA Championships which held a hungry Middle Tennessee State team looking to pull off the upset. That, of course, did not happen as UTEP put together a surprising display of pack running and took the team title, 24 to 36. The Miners continued their postseason run at the Mountain Region Championships where they placed 5th overall. Luckily, Southern Utah would finish 6th and push the Miners (as well as BYU and CSU) into Nationals. NCAA's would be the real test as to whether or not UTEP's depth could back up the performances of their top guys. Unfortunately, that wouldn't matter as not a single UTEP athlete had a good day with their top five placing 98, 109, 110, 191, and 199 (all in team scoring). UTEP would finish 29th in the team standings. Yes, the concern with UTEP is obvious. They lack depth and that can definitely hurt this team when someone has an off day. Pre-Nats was only proof of that theory. However, a heavy portion of this team will be another year older and they only lose one of their top five scorers from 2016. While we may not know exactly who that 5th scorer is, we can also bet on the idea that Coach Ereng will find talented Kenyans to fill those roster spots. Don't forget that this is a team that placed 2nd at Notre Dame ahead of accomplished programs like Washington State, NC State, Southern Utah, Eastern Kentucky, Illinois, and many more. Talent like that doesn't just disappear... There are plenty of arguments to make against this ranking, but UTEP is still on the younger side and has plenty more to prove. Koech and Kosgei are an underrated top two, Saruni is a reliable 3rd scorer, and Cheruiyot brings consistency with his senior status. At least through four men, this squad is very good. Admittedly, the success of this team will depend on which freshmen they recruit, but with the connections that Paul Ereng has, I'm willing to bet UTEP will be just fine in 2017. #Top25 #gzatlin #ncaa #rankings #analysis

19. Mid. Tenn. St. Blue Raiders Coach: Dean Hayes Notable Departures: Hillary Rono Notable Additions: N/A Projected Scoring Five: Jacob Choge (SO) [TSR#12], Kigen Chemadi (JR), Sampson Laari (SR), Amos Cheruiyot (SR), Geoffrey Cheruiyot (SR) Analysis: One of the more exciting teams for the past few years has been the MTSU Blue Raiders. Excellent recruiting from Coach Hayes has transformed this program from just another average team, to one of the best squads in the NCAA. With a new season on the rise, this program has a chance to capitalize on their success from 2016 and accomplish even more in 2017. Although this team has been successful in the past, 2016 proved to be one of the best years in program history. Middle Tennessee began their season at the Memphis Twilight meet where they easily handled squads like Alabama and Mississippi's "B" team. The result would be similar at the UTC Powerade Invite as the Blue Raiders swept the field and defeated Alabama once again. The first real challenge wouldn't come until the Commodore XC Invite which held an underrated Georgia team and a slew of talented individuals. Of course, that didn't phase MTSU. The men in blue put five in the top 30 by placing 2, 8, 10, 17, and 26. That runner-up finish was by Jacob Choge, a freshman who pushed Edwin Kibichiy to the line. Could he be the elite low-stick that MTSU was looking for? That question wouldn't be answered for another two weeks, but Middle Tennessee did walk away with a convincing win over Georgia. The Blue Raiders continued to crank up their competition as they traveled to the Greater Louisville Classic (GLC). Despite a great race by MTSU, Virginia Tech would narrowly take the win, 59 to 62. Still, it's hard to be too upset about that loss. The team ran very well and Jacob Choge established himself as the team ace after pushing Kibichiy to the line once again. GLC would be the last major invite before the post-season where things certainly wouldn't get any easier. At the Conference USA Championships, Middle Tennessee State battled with UTEP in what was one of the more underrated matchups of conference week. When the scores were tallied, UTEP emerged as the victor by 12 points with the both teams having individuals scattered throughout the top 15. However, Jacob Choge did take the win over established distance star, Jonah Koech. Luckily, the Raiders would be able to bounce back at the South Region Championships. Choge and Chemadi took the top two spots and led their team to an automatic qualifier, 15 points behind the Ole Miss Rebels for the title. As the team toed the line at the NCAA Championships, my expectations for MTSU were high (especially for Jacob Choge). Unfortunately, their inexperience got the best of them. Choge finished 31st overall (in the team scoring) while the rest of his team placed 119, 161, 189, and 197. Middle Tennessee would finish with a score of 697 and place 28th overall. Why do I like the Blue Raiders in 2017? They return a heavy portion of their squad, have younger guys who are on the rise, and now have experience on the big stage. Jacob Choge has shown that he can be a reliable ace and Kigen Chemadi looks like an excellent #2 man. Don't sleep on the point scoring potential of this duo. At the same time, the final three scorers are all set to be seniors. Their veteran status and experience brings a great sense of security and reliability. They rarely struggled in 2016 with relatively consistent performances across the board. Overall, this is a very solid team and there isn't much else to say besides that. They have a complete scoring five and all of the pieces that make up a future regional champion. However, if they want to be a top 10 team, I am looking for this group to tighten their time spread and improve their overall placement. If they can accomplish that, then don't be surprised when MTSU pulls off a string of upsets. #Top25 #ncaa #rankings #analysis #gzatlin

20. Georgetown Hoyas Coach: Brandon Bonsey Notable Departures: Scott Carpenter, Michael Lederhouse, Michael Clevenger, Christian Alvarado (?) Notable Additions: Seth Eliason, Ty Brownlow Projected Scoring Five: Jonathan Green (Rs. SR) [TSR#9], Amos Bartelsmeyer (Rs. SR), Jack Van Scoter (SO), Matthew Bouthillette (SO), Eion Nohilly (Rs. FR) Analysis: The grass is green, the sky is blue, and Georgetown will qualify for Nationals in 2017. One of the NCAA's premier powerhouse teams have been the Georgetown Hoyas and although they lose a huge chunk of key runners, this team will find a way to rebound for this upcoming cross country season. Expectations were high for the Hoyas in 2016. Green had proven that he was one of the best in the nation in 2015, Notre Dame low-stick Michael Clevenger entered the program as a graduate student, and a strong group of recruits were catching attention from fans around the nation. What could possibly go wrong? The first meet of their season was at Paul Short which they were favored to win. Unfortunately, Green had a poor race and Clevenger struggled in his season debut. Apparently, Green was coming off a summer in which he sustained an injury. It would be the first and only race of Green's 2016 season. Iona would go to win with a monster score of 34 points. Georgetown was runner-up with a score of 115. With Clevenger struggling to adjust and Green out for the rest of the season, the pressure was now on Georgetown to use the guys they had to be successful. Luckily, Scott Carpenter had reached a completely new level of fitness which was evident by his Paul Short win. At the same time, Christian Alvarado was a sophomore showing promise while Bartelsmeyer and Lederhouse provided excellent experience for the squad. The next stop on the schedule was the Wisconsin Invite and the result would be a bit more positive than Paul Short. Scott Carpenter would once again put together a huge performance by placing 13th overall. The rest of the squad was spread out rather evenly by placing 51, 84, 106, and 145. The Hoyas would place 14th overall and beat future regional auto-lock teams like NC State and Michigan State (which earned them Kolas points). BIG East's was where we saw a bit more consistency from the Hoyas with finishes of 2, 5, 6, 9, and 11. Georgetown would easily take the conference title and shift their focus to the Mid-Atlantic Regional Championships with the goal of qualifying for Nationals. Sure enough, the Hoyas took care of business with a strong score of 66 points to defeat a deep Navy team and take the regional title. Although their success in the post-season had been strong, NCAA's would prove to be a different beast. Despite a great 8th place finish by Carpenter (in the team scoring), the rest of the team struggled with finishes of 46, 134, 171, 175. The Hoyas would go to finish 21st overall. Admittedly, 2016 was a rough year for the men in DC. It doesn't help that they lost one of the best runners in the NCAA in their very first meet and it also doesn't help that their star transfer (Clevenger) had difficulty adjusting to a new environment. There were also expectations that Darren Fahy would be racing that season, which wasn't the case. Still, when you consider everything that happened, Georgetown actually held their own quite well. A program can only handle so many low-stick absences and this team responded very well to the challenges. In 2017, things will not get much easier for the Hoyas thanks to a lack of eligibility removing three scorers from their roster. Carpenter, Clevenger, and Lederhouse were guys that kept this team competitive. To no longer see them in the Hoya lineup will be a huge blow. We also can't overlook the fact that Christian Alvarado is missing from Georgetown's 2017 roster. Is that simply a mistake? Did Alvarado quit? Leave the team? The uncertainty of his status is concerning and until we know more, we have to assume he is no longer with the team. That said, the names that do return are capable of filling the void left by these big names. Jonathan Green is set to return for his final cross country season and although he had difficulties with injuries last fall, his performances during outdoor track indicate that Green is back to full health and fitness. Do not undervalue what he could bring to the team. Amos Bartelsmeyer is another race-savy veteran who has consistently given the Hoyas a reliable scorer to lean on. As long as he can produce similar results to 2016 (or better) than Georgetown should be very solid up front. The next two scorers will most likely consist of sophomores Jack Van Scoter and Matthew Bouthilette, two high school stars that did very well in their first year of collegiate competition. The great thing about this duo is that we've seen guys of similar talent levels make significant improvements during their sophomore years with Georgetown. I strongly believe that this duo will follow suit and continue to build on their experience from last year. It's difficult to say who the next scorer is going to be, but if I had to guess, I would say Eion Nohilly is a good option. Why? I am a firm believer that the best track event to showcase cross country fitness is the steeplechase (due to it's variability and irregular racing layout). If we look at Nohilly, he had some very solid success in the steeple this past spring and posted a personal best of 9:05 as a true freshman. Even if Nohilly doesn't make his way into the scoring five, there are still plenty of names that could step up and play a role. Michael Crozier was someone who found a spot in Georgetown's starting lineup last year. He could end up bettering his performances in 2017. Additionally, the Hoyas bring in an excellent recruiting class which includes sub-15 minute 5k runner, Seth Eliason and NXN All-American, Ty Brownlow. Either of these incoming freshmen could have a role on this 2017 team. Yet, at the end of the day, the biggest reason why Georgetown will be successful is not because of their elite low-sticks, top-tier recruiting, or solid depth. This program will be successful simply because they are the Georgetown Hoyas. In the past 19 years, G-town has only missed out on Nationals once. That stat alone should make you think twice before betting against the Hoyas. #Top25 #analysis #gzatlin #ncaa #rankings

21. Tulsa Hurricanes Coach: Steve Gulley Notable Departures: Luke Traynor, Dallas Elmore Notable Additions: Henry Williams, Isaac Akers, Scott Beattie Projected Scoring Five: Benjamin Preisner (SR), Henry Pearce (Rs. SR), Adam Roderique (Rs. SR), Isaac Dobos (Rs. JR), Issac Akers (FR) Analysis: What impresses me about the Tulsa Hurricanes is that no matter who they graduate, they always find a way to stay competitive and make it to the National Championships. A lot of that success can be credited to Steve Gulley who has taken respectable recruits and turned them into absolute studs. There aren't many coaches who can maximize the production they get out of their athletes like Gulley does. When we look at Tulsa's 2016 season, you could argue that the Hurricanes were in the same situation they were in now. Their reliable ace, Marc Scott, had just run out of cross country eligibility. The rest of the team was deep and they had a great pack, but they needed to find another low-stick. The first meet of the season came at the Cowboy Jamboree where the Hurricanes would have to face their Mid-West regional rivals, Oklahoma State. The task would prove to be a difficult one as OSU out-ran Tulsa and defeated them by 20 points. It may have been a tough loss for the 'Canes, but they could at least argue that their pack running was strong and showed potential. Next on the schedule was the Wisconsin Invite where we got to see what this Hurricane squad was really made of. Luke Traynor was the highlight of the team after placing 11th overall. Luckily, his low-stick finish helped make up for the gaps throughout the rest of the scorers who placed 61, 71, 95, and 129. The Hurricanes would finish 13th in the team scoring. The team transitioned to the post-season where they easily cruised through their conference meet (AAC) to secure the team title. The real test wouldn't be until the Mid-West Regional Championships where Tulsa would once again battle Oklahoma State and other quality opponents like Illinois, Iowa State, and Minnesota. Of course, that didn't matter as Luke Traynor took the individual title while his teammates placed 10th, 11th, and 12th through four men. In fact, the Hurricanes had the best top four in the entire region. Unfortunately, Tulsa's 5th man would place 55th overall, dashing any hopes of an Oklahoma State upset. Still, the Hurricanes would place 2nd overall and secure the 2nd auto-lock spot for Nationals. It was clear that Tulsa was beginning to reach their peak at the right time and there was no race more evident of that than at NCAA's, their best race of the season. Once again, Luke Traynor was the low-stick who gave Tulsa the edge they needed with a 13th place finish. Preisner, Roderique, and Pearce continued to stay reliable by finishing 72, 76, and 106. Yet, that 5th man continued to be an issue with the final Tulsa scorer coming in at 159th. When the final team scores were tallied, Tulsa walked away with an 11th place team finish. They had blown away expectations in the post-season and established themselves as a threat in 2017. We are now only a month out from the official start of the cross country season and the narrative for Tulsa is still the same. Much like 2016, they lost a huge piece in Luke Traynor who was responsible for the team scoring never getting out of hand. With Traynor now out of the picture, the Hurricanes will be looking for a new low-stick to lead their team. Will they be able to find a legitimate replacement? They've done it before, but it's certainly not going to be easy. Yet, even with the loss of Traynor, this team is deep and returns the rest of their squad from 2016. Preisner, Pearce, and Rodrique are a formidable top three who kept a tight pack throughout the 2016 season. One of these three could emerge as the front-runner that Tulsa needs, but even if they don't, their experience and consistency will prove to be very valuable at the bigger invitationals. However, the final two Tulsa scorers is where things become a little obscure. Dobos and Ort traded turns being the 5th scorer last year and although they had their off days, I expect them to improve with age. Even if Dobos and Ort don't make noticeable improvements, some people forget just how talented some of these younger guys are. Two incoming freshmen from England are Isaac Akers and Scott Beattie who have run personal bests of 8:18 and 8:28 for 3000 meters. Imagine what they could do with a collegiate program... If you count the freshmen who were redshirted last year, Tulsa has 12 names that have never raced collegiate cross country before. I would be very surprised if the Hurricanes couldn't find a pair of reliable scorers to complete their top five scorers. It's easy to undervalue Tulsa. We did it last year and they ended up as the 11th best team in the nation. While I do think that the loss of Traynor will hurt, I still see this squad staying very competitive and possibly defending their auto-lock spot that they earned at last year's regional championship. With a vast supply of depth and exciting new recruits, the potential upside of this team is at an all-time high. #rankings #Top25 #analysis #gzatlin #ncaa