10. Texas Longhorns 2017 Recruits: - Sam Worley (1:48 / 4:00 / 8:51 / 14:40) - Connor O'Neill (4:18 / 9:10 / 15:04) - Jake Johnson (4:16 / 9:11 / 15:24) - Mikel Escobar (52 / 1:54) Analysis: Is there a team more under rated and under appreciated than the Longhorns? The men from Texas have been steadily improving on the track as surprise names have climbed to the top of the race results almost every other weekend. This is a Texas program that can stay competitive in nearly every distance event with multiple individuals contributing to the team score. Yet, despite the success, I think it's fair to say that this program is still a few key pieces away from becoming a true national contender. The Longhorns are still very young and will need a few years to develop the raw and untested talent that lies within their roster. The good news? They just grabbed one of the most talented recruits in the nation who should have an immediate impact once he steps foot on campus. The similarities between high school star Sam Worley and rising Texas junior Alex Rogers are uncanny. Although the best event between this duo is the mile, they can still go up and down in distance and be one of the top finishers once they cross the line. Their 1:48 speed makes them a threat in nearly every tactical race while their strength in the longer distances make them impactful scorers during cross country. With so much youth and potential centered around the longer distances in this Texas program, I imagine Worley's training will involve a steady increase in mileage for the next few seasons as the team builds for the future success of their cross country program. There is plenty of upside for some of these guys during cross country and we saw a bit of that last fall throughout the post-season. If you give this squad and their incoming recruits enough time to develop, they could potentially take down Arkansas and reclaim the SEC title. Of course, Sam Worley isn't the only recruit to take note of. The duo of Connor O'Neill and Jake Johnson simply backs our idea that Texas is stocking up on long-distance weapons to prep for future dominance in cross country. These two may not be 4-flat milers like Worley, but Johnson and O'Neill were still considered elite high school distance runners in an already stacked Texas high school scene that included names like Daniel Bernal, Alex Maier, Reed Brown, and Sam Worley (to a name a few). O'Neill even had a chance to run at NXN where he finished 24th overall - four spots off from an All American finish. If nothing else, then Johnson and O'Neill will at least provide Texas with more depth and more options. It's never a bad thing when a coach can have elite talent to pull from at any moment. The last recruit to mention is Mikel Escobar who brings some much needed mid-distance speed to the Texas program. He may not have the flashy times of 1:48 that Worley, Rogers or rising Texas senior Robert Uhr have, but It's possible that he could develop to that level of fitness and provide some depth in the middle distances. The future was already bright before this recruiting class came in. Could this be the group that puts Texas back at the top of the South Central region? Only time will tell... #recruits #gzatlin #ncaa #rankings

It’s that time of the year again for distance runners all around the nation. While some collegiates are extending their season in an attempt to qualify for the World Championships, others are shifting their focus towards the long grind of summer miles in preparation for cross country. The switch to cross country means that we have many questions to analyze and answer such as...who is the favorite to win the team title this year? Who has the edge during cross country, Fisher or Knight? What big-name transfers can we expect this year and how will they impact their team? The questions for this upcoming season are endless... With essentially three months of no collegiate racing happening, that leaves us a lot of time of time for features, rankings, stories, and so much more. So what will our plan be during these summer months? Here are just a few ideas… -Recruit Rankings (coming soon) -Top 25 Team XC Rankings (coming this July) -Top 50 Individual XC Rankings (coming this August) -Featured stories -Digits -Anything you would want to see (comment below, contact us on social media, or send us an email) At the same time, we are also looking for writers! If you’re interested in being a part of a growing site that pays $2 per article then send us an email at contact@thestridereport.com to find out more information. We’re always looking for more people to get involved! In the mean time, stay patient as we prep a summer of awesome content! We’ve got a lot more coming your way. Stay tuned, The Stride Report team #gzatlin

The spring track season has now come to an end. Throughout the season, we made some bold (and some not-so-bold) predictions and statements throughout the year. But how many of those statements and predictions actually came true? Did we hit the nail on the head or did we flounder in our analysis? It seems to be a good mix of both. Below, we have given excerpts from certain articles that we've posted throughout the spring track season where we made some sort of statement about the future. Take a look and see if we were right or wrong... Business As Usual Quote: “Futsum Zienasellassie […] Best Guess: Hoka One One […] It feels as if this was a given for the NAU senior […] Is there really a better fit for him elsewhere?” Result: Correct Explanation: Although we may have “called” this one, the idea of Futsum going to NAZ Elite with Hoka One One seemed like a no-brainer. As mentioned in the article, Futsum wouldn’t have to venture too far from his NAU roots and he would already be adjusted to the altitude as well as the training environment. In addition to the location, NAZ Elite’s training program complimented Futsum’s racing style and preference as they tend to focus their workouts towards cross country and the longer distances. Raleigh Relays Recap Quote: “Randon finished in a time of 3:42.44 while youngster Ryan Adams (only a sophomore) was close behind in 3:42.90. These are excellent times for a meet in late March and a great indicator of what we could potentially see in the future. If these guys can find a fast enough race, sub 3:40 isn’t out of the question for either of them.” Result: Correct Explanation: It took a while for this one to come to fruition, but James Randon made me look really smart at the Swarthmore Last Chance meet where he ran 3:37 in a field loaded with professionals and Ivy League elites. Although Ryan Adams never got faster than 3:42, he was the one that ended up qualifying for NCAA’s while James Randon went home early. Digits: Analyzing The Stanford Invite Quote: “With the first few weeks of competition now finished, it seems as though we have found our candidates to potentially break 28 minutes. 2013 had three men under the barrier, is it possible that 2017 has the same or even more?” Result: Incorrect Explanation: Not only did this bold prediction not happen, but we did not even see a single individual break 28 minutes in the 10k this year! Throughout all of the available data on TFRRS (which goes back to 2010) there has always been at least one individual to break the 28-minute mark in a spring track season. Marc Scott and Alfred Chelanga came awfully close to the mark with times of 28:04, but left us without an individual under the mark. Not only were we left without a 27-minute 10k runner, but we were also left with plenty of questions. The biggest question I have is could Cheserek have gone under 28 minutes if he gave an all-out effort? What if he ran at Payton Jordan? Would he have gone under 28 minutes there? What if Alfred Chelanga, Erik Peterson, or Jerrell Mock ran at Payton Jordan? Why was Marc Scott the only collegiate entered in the 10k? These are trivial questions that wont make a difference in the long-run, but they at least give us something to think about... Under The Radar Underclassmen Quote: “Despite his consistency, Lewis needs to find a way to dip under that mark of 1:48 and start consistently hitting 1:47’s. If he can do that, then don’t be surprised when he ends up qualifying for nationals by the end of the season.” Result: Correct Explanation: I like to think that Lewis read this article and just decided to follow my advice. 11 days after this article was published, Lewis ran under 1:48 mark for the first time ever with a personal best of 1:47.95. Lewis went on to improve that mark with a personal best at ACC’s where he ran a time of 1:47.62. He later went sub-1:48 again at Regionals. The result? Lewis qualified for his first ever National Championship. Trends and consistency matter in the NCAA! Let’s Rewind: Florida Relays Quote: “Moreover, a fast 800 backs my bold prediction that Engels will be the 1500m winner for the NCAA this season.” Result: Incorrect Explanation: If there was a bold prediction to make, this was probably the most sensible one. There was a lot to like about Engels this season when you consider the factors of improvement, consistency, experience, and momentum. Engels came off of an indoor campaign where he showed some signs of steady improvement after an early-season injury delayed the start to his winter training/racing. Engels was hitting top form at the start of the spring season and although he didn’t beat Kerr at Bryan Clay, his personal best of 3:37 along with his talents in the 800 made him a very dangerous opponent for Kerr in the future. The championship experience that Engels brought to the track did not make the predictions for the 1500 easy (at least on our end). Of course, Kerr has now elevated his fitness to a new level and was able to display finishing speed that we haven’t seen since Jordy Williamsz of Villanova. Engels may not have pulled off the upset, but if there was anyone capable of doing it, he was the one. The Weekend Review (4/16/17) Quote: “…it’s very possible that Kiprop transfers to a division one program after this year. He’s talented enough to get a full-ride somewhere. He could even follow Alfred Chelanga to Alabama. The Crimson Tide do lose Antibahs Kosgei and Robbie Farnham-Rose at the end of this season. With those two gone, there would be plenty of room (and need) for a distance talent like Kiprop...” Result: Correct Explanation: A few weeks ago, Alabama’s 2017-2018 roster was updated and with it came the addition of 5x D2 NCAA Champ Vincent Kiprop. In addition to Kiprop, the Crimson Tide also gained 9x NJCAA champion Gilbert Kigen. If we’re being honest, this is the prediction I am the most proud of. Trying to call the future location of a potential transfer is incredibly difficult in my mind, but this scenario just seemed to make the most scene. The addition of Alfred Chelanga in the winter, the convenience of the location, and the scholarship opportunities from graduates like Farnham-Rose and Kosgei made this transfer seem inevitable. However, I will admit that I did not expect Gilbert Kigen to join this group. He will be a huge asset to the Crimson Tide which could be what they needed to contend with other southern cross country programs like Ole Miss, Texas, and Florida State. Digits: Josh Kerr Isn’t The Favorite To Win The 1500 Quote: “Kerr may own the 6th fastest NCAA 1500 ever, but based on the past few years of competition, we shouldn’t claim him as the NCAA champion just yet.” Result: Incorrect Explanation: What can I say? I was trying to be bold… As I mentioned earlier, I think you could make the argument that Engels had the potential to upset Kerr. But in retrospect, the idea of Kerr not being the favorite was a bit silly. To be fair, the numbers were stacked against him so I think it’s fair to say that what he accomplished was rather significant. Only two freshmen (including redshirts) have been NCAA champions in the 95-year history of the 1500/mile. Throw in the comparisons with Joe Falcon (as mentioned in the article) and you have a very rare occurrence. The Weekend Review (4/30/17) Quote: “[Arroyo has been] running the fastest he’s ever run and doing so with different racing styles. With a strong display of range, you can’t help but think that Arroyo has found the formula to once again become an All-American.” Result: Correct Explanation: I was rather critical of Arroyo over the past two years. This is a guy with such incredible talent who simply couldn’t take advantage of the championship stage with multiple missed chances of becoming an All-American. However, this season was different and I think you could see that difference in his racing styles and in his ability to move up in distance (i.e. his 3:41 PR in the 1500). Being able to race tactically is so important when trying to succeed at NCAA’s and it seems like Arroyo was finally able to figure out that aspect of racing. Arroyo ended up in 5th place to cap off his collegiate career as a 2x All-American. It was the best finish at NCAA’s he has ever had (8th place was his previous best). Digits: Double Gold Quote: " [of the] six double gold conference winners from this past weekend, approximately four of them will become All-Americans” Result: Incorrect Explanation: Of the six double gold conference winners (Kerr, Tate, Knevelbaard, Erb, Choge, Keter) only three of them became All-Americans instead of the four I predicted. Further more, the two guys who I said would be “locks” were Knevelbaard and Tate. Naturally, neither of those two qualified for NCAA’s. Kerr, Erb, and Keter came through in the All-American count, but Choge failed to get on the podium despite racing in both the 5k and 10k. The struggles from Choge as well as the big misses from Tate and Knevelbaard were the biggest reasons why these numbers didn’t match up. Quote: “…either Keter, Kerr, Tate, Knevelbaard, Erb, or Choge will become an NCAA champion this June.” Result: Correct Explanation: In my predictions, I had both Kerr and Erb winning national titles. If I had paid attention to the numbers, I would’ve realized that only one in six double conference champions (DCC’s) will become NCAA champions. Sure enough, Erb couldn’t grab the win while Kerr was able to earn gold. Past history indicated that the steeplechase was easiest event to clinch gold in if you became a DCC. Still, Kerr came up big at NCAA’s and became the first DCC since at least 2010 to win a national title. It may not have been the event I thought it was going to be, but the averages still turned out to be accurate. #rightampwrong #ncaa #joshkerr #digits #recap

Cheserek Is Not To Blame For Sit-And-Kick Races When you’re the best, there’s always criticism to be found. Despite his 17 national titles, Cheserek was consistently criticized for his unwillingness to assert a fast pace during championship races as well as other meets like the Penn Relays. But who can blame him? Why did no one else make the pace fast? Is it really his fault that races he competed in turned out to be slow? After seeing the results from this past weekend, I think the answer is a resounding “No”. 10k National Champion Marc Scott used the classic sit-and-kick method to secure his first ever national title while Grant Fisher did the same exact thing in the 5k. In fact, Fisher even went on to say in his post-race interview that in championship races “everyone thinks they can kick”, which obviously seems to be the case. With Josh Kerr now dominating in the 1500, will he receive the same criticism Cheserek gets for his national titles? Kerr’s past two title wins haven’t been that fast and have been won with last-lap heroics. Want To Win An NCAA Championship? Have Great Range… Of the five national champions in the distance events, all of them displayed the ability to compete at a high level in events other than what they achieved NCAA gold in. Emmanuel Korir split 43.34 in a 4x4 to compliment his personal best of 1:43 in the half-mile. Josh Kerr ran an underrated double at the Mountain West Conference Championships where he ran 1:48.04 at altitude to win after also winning the 1500. Maybe one of the best displays of range came from Edwin Kibichiy who ran 28:38 for the 10k, took bronze in the ACC 5k, and even added on a time of 3:46 in the 1500 (just one second off of his PR). After an impressive last 400 in the Stanford Cardinal Classic 5k, Grant Fisher showed that his leg speed was no fluke when he became the 1500 PAC-12 champion with a scorching 51.81 second last lap. And how could we forget about Marc Scott? The Tulsa senior was one of only three individuals who qualified for NCAA’s in both the 5k and 10k. Of course, there are plenty of All-Americans who have shown equally impressive range (especially the milers) which would continue to explain why these individuals had such great success this season. Andres Arroyo had his first All-American performance for the the first time in two years after running a huge personal best of 3:41 in the 1500 earlier this spring. I like to think that his success in the longer distance indicated that he was strong enough to get through the rounds and make himself a contender in fast races. The 1500 included guys like Justine Kiprotich, Craig Engels, and Neil Gourley who all owned strong personal bests in the 800. Josh Thompson went on to find that he is a very talented steeplechaser with a personal best time of 8:32 at the Portland Track Festival just a few days ago. The list goes on for All-Americans in the longer distances as many of them are capable of balancing the fitness required for the 5k and 10k. Foreigners Are Still Dominating The NCAA Of the five NCAA distance champions, Grant Fisher was the only American. Korir (Kenya), Kerr (Scotland), Kibichiy (Kenya), and Scott (Great Britain) all took gold ahead of America’s top-tier talent. Even the top finishers behind these NCAA champions are international athletes. Just take a look at the 5000. Jack Bruce (2nd) is from Australia, Justyn Knight (3rd) is Canadian, Marc Scott (4th) is British, Amon Terer (5th) is Kenyan, and Chartt Miller (6th) is Australian. After Fisher, the next American to cross the line was Minnesota-native Joe Klecker who placed 7th overall. Justine Kiprotich (2nd in 1500), although raised in America, was born in Kenya. He was followed by Scotland’s Neil Gourley who placed 5th in the 1500. And the 10k? Marc Scott (1st) is British and Rory Linkletter (2nd) is Canadian. Butler’s Erik Peterson was the first American to cross the line in 3rd, but he was quickly followed by France’s Arsene Guillorel who placed 4th. My point? Not much has changed among the collegiate elites as Americans still can’t seem to find their place among the top of the podium. While I would like to see less rosters composed entirely of Kenyans, Australians, or Brits, I can’t blame collegiate coaches for looking into foreign athletes as a new way to build to their program. Unless you have the big-name appeal of Oregon, Stanford, or Colorado (to name a few) it’s not easy to recruit the greatest high-level athletes the U.S. has to offer. Underclassmen Are Thriving In The Shorter Distances In the 800, we saw a true freshman and a true sophomore finish 1-2, each running times of 1:45. Had Saruni not tripped and fallen, we could have very easily seen two freshmen cross the line in first. Although he ended up in 7th place, Devin Dixon of Texas A&M proved that he is one of the best 800 runners in the nation as just a freshman. Is it really a fluke that these runners are so young? The top two 800 times in the NCAA have both been run by freshmen in the span of a year… The 1500 wasn’t that much different as the top finishers in that race were both sophomores (Kiprotich is a redshirt sophomore). Of course, success of the underclassmen seems exclusive to the mid-distances. In fact, not a single freshman or sophomore became an All-American in the steeplechase. Yes, Fisher did win the 5k as a sophomore, but an overwhelming number of All-Americans in the steeplechase, 5k, and 10k were juniors and seniors. I will continue to argue that this is simply because it takes much more time to build a base for the longer races than it does the mid-distances. #Nationals #joshkerr #whatwelearned #cheserek #analysis #ncaa

800 Although this is the shortest event we will discuss, it gave us the most to talk about. With the exception of Eliud Rutto and Patrick Joseph, most of the stars in this race made it through the prelims and into the finals. Most of the race was led by Drew Piazza (Virginia Tech) as he brought the field through the first 400 in 51 seconds. Piazza held the top position until the final 200 meters where UTEP’s Korir and Saruni immediately took over by passing Piazza on both his inside and outside shoulders. Saruni took the lead as Korir attempted to settle in behind him. However, Korir could not find his proper position near the rail and made a move to get to the outside of the lane. In doing so, Korir clipped Saruni’s leg which sent Saruni plummeting to the track and nearly being trampled by the rest of the field. In the final 100, Isaiah Harris (Penn State) approached Korir’s shoulder as they charged down the home straight. Korir eventually responded and held off Harris to defend his NCAA title with a winning time of 1:45. Harris, along with Georgetown’s Joe White, rounded out the top three with both athletes dipping under 1:46. Korir was not DQ’d for clipping Saruni, but you have to wonder if the result would have been different if they weren’t teammates. Could Saruni have declined Korir getting DQ’d because it was his teammate? It’s possible, but I admittedly don’t know if the race officials would have allowed it. Hypotheticals aside, you can’t help but feel bad for Saruni. The UTEP freshman has been living in the shadow of Korir all season despite running 1:45 and defeating Donavan Brazier earlier this season. Saruni was also disqualified during indoor NCAA’s after making too much contact with Drew Piazza in one of the final two laps. An 8th place finish with a time of 2:15 is not the way you want to finish your first collegiate season. But something we aren’t talking about is the performance from Robert Heppenstall. The Wake Forest sophomore enters each season under the radar and quietly puts together solid performance after solid performance. With his 4th place finish on Friday, Heppenstall has now become an All-American every time he has raced at NCAA’s (four times). Finally, I think Andres Arroyo deserves some recognition. He has had so many struggles throughout his career in championship races and should honestly be a much more decorated All-American. Maybe that’s why his 5th place, All-American performance seems like an appropriate way to finish out his collegiate career. 1500 Although there were a few minor surprises in the prelims, Saturday’s final was relatively unsurprising. Josh Kerr is once again a national champion. Justine Kiprotich was the sleeper pick that everyone knew about. Craig Engels, Josh Thompson, and Neil Gourley cemented themselves as elite milers in an early Kerr-dominated era. The top five met their expectations. However, it was the lower portion of the results that interested me, especially when I saw the 6th place finisher. Andrew Dusing (Miami-Ohio) had a personal best of 3:45 and was ranked 91st on TFRRS as he entered East Regionals. He had never been to a NCAA championship and had only recorded two individual wins throughout his entire career (both were in the 800). You can see why it was such a surprise when Dusing made it to NCAA’s. Once there, Dusing made the most of his opportunity as he unleashed a HUGE personal best of 3:40.99 to snag the very last qualifying spot to Saturday’s final. It was a 4.08 second PR, an improvement that is unprecedented at this level and at this point in his career. But the Cinderella-streak of success had to run out eventually for Dusing…right? Wrong. Dusing entered a stacked field full of super-star milers and did not flinch in the big moment. The Miami-Ohio senior ran an incredibly smart race as he made sure to keep the leaders within striking distance. Although he wasn’t able to navigate around the lead pack, he was still rewarded with a 6th place All-American finish. Jeff Thies (Portland) also deserves some love after his 7th place, All-American finish. I always viewed Thies as a long-distance runner which is why it surprised me a bit to see him step down in distance have such strong success in the 1500. He's done well in the 1500 before this season began, but not to this extent. 3000 Steeple Throughout the entirety of the spring season, steeplechasers as a whole drew criticism from myself as only two individuals had dipped under 8:40 entering Regionals (Fraley and Roth). Of course, that number of two individuals quickly increased as Kibichiy and five others dropped under the 8:40 mark and established a new standard for what to expect at NCAA’s. Despite Kibichiy’s NCAA #1 time of 8:32, he didn’t seem to be an overwhelming favorite like Mason Ferlic or Anthony Rotich once were. Personally, I viewed guys like Troy Fraley, Dylan Lafond, and MJ Erb as candidates that could have potentially upset Kibichiy for the win. But the Louisville senior had other plans for Saturday’s final as he set an assertive pace to break the field of any final-lap heroics. Sure enough, his strategy worked as Mississippi’s MJ Erb just couldn’t stay with the demanding pace and was eventually caught by the chase pack. After a season where almost no one was breaking 8:40, Kibichiy crossed the line in first with a phenomenal time of 8:28 to secure his first national title. Behind Kibichiy, we saw seven other individuals run under 8:40. Guys like Darren Fahy (Georgetown) and Dylan Blankenbaker (Oklahoma) were able to track down MJ Erb to claim silver and bronze while also running significant personal bests in the process. In fact, a heavy portion of the All-Americans in this field were able to get personal bests. Just check out the names listed below… 1. Edwin Kibichiy (Louisville): 2 second improvement (8:28) 2. Darren Fahy (Georgetown): 5 second improvement (8:31) 3. Dylan Blankenbaker (Oklahoma): 3 second improvement (8:31) 4. MJ Erb (Mississippi): 2 second improvement (8:32) 5. Scott Carpenter (Georgetown): 4 second improvement (8:32) 6. Benard Keter (Texas Tech): Did Not Improve (8:34) 7. Troy Fraley (Gonzaga): 4 second improvement (8:35) 8. Troy Reeder (Furman): Did Not Improve (8:38) As you’ve probably already noticed, Georgetown continued to flex their strength in the steeplechase. Every single year, the Hoyas produce the best steeplechase talent in the nation that can compete for All-American spots. Whatever training they are going through, it’s working. It’s also a bit interesting to note that guys like Fahy, Blankenbaker, and Carpenter didn’t really garner a lot of attention until Regionals where they began to gather momentum. Others like Erb, Fraley, and Reeder earned a lot of the national spotlight earlier this season and although they ran incredibly well on Friday, I thought at least one of them would be top three. 5000 Two weeks ago, I published an article called Stanford’s Change of Pace, which discussed the training and racing dynamic between Sean McGorty and Grant Fisher. In that article, I brought forth a scenario where Fisher wins a national title in the one season when both Cheserek and McGorty aren't racing. Then, add on the fact that McGorty has consistently come up short of a national title win because Cheserek was the biggest obstacle in his way. See the irony? But let’s set that storyline aside and discuss the wicked kick from Fisher that made him an NCAA champion. Overall, the race was incredibly tactical with the leaders coming through the 3k in 9:20. From there, the race slowly picked up and essentially became a one-mile sprint to the finish. Despite multiple lead changes, varying paces, and a tightly packed lead group, Fisher, Knight, and Bruce found themselves at the front and kicking hard with 300 meters to go. As they came off the final curve, Fisher and Bruce hung on Knight’s shoulder and were able to slingshot off the turn and past Justyn Knight who just simply couldn’t respond. Fisher was the winner in a pedestrian time of 14:35. Upon review, there were a few surprises especially when you think about how the race benefitted guys who can drop down in distance. Joe Hardy (Wisconsin), Cole Rockhold (Colorado State), and Julian Oakley (Providence) are guys who have proven themselves to be top-tier milers. I’m surprised that they didn’t perform better when you consider at the race played into their strengths. In his second event of the weekend, freshman Jacob Choge failed to become an All-American. He had been performing so well throughout the season and held a huge personal best of 13:39 from late April. In all fairness, the slow pace did not benefit his racing style as it required plenty of leg speed. Choge is much more distance oriented than he is speed based and tactical races are not going to go his way until he develops the ability to change gears at the end of a race. 10,000 SEE DAY ONE ANALYSIS HERE #recap #ncaa #Nationals #gzatlin #joshkerr

Our picks are finally here! Myself, along with some of the other site contributors, have gathered together for a prediction contest in an attempt to flex our NCAA distance running knowledge. We have also added Flotrack's picks for the sake of comparison. Throughout the rest of the week, we will update the scores as the preliminaries are finished. THE STRIDE REPORT'S 2017 NCAA Spring Track Predictions * So how does our scoring work? It goes something like this... -Lowest score wins -Correctly predicting the winner will be result in a bonus of -3 points. -The difference between where a runner was predicted to finish and where they actually finished is the score that athlete earns for the predictions contest. For example, if Josh Thompson was predicted to place 2nd, but actually places 6th, the score he earns for the predictor is 4 points. However, if were to place 1st, then he earns only 1 point. -No athlete can earn a score higher than 12 points in one event. *Despite a busy schedule, my hope is to have analysis of The Stride Report's predictions by tomorrow! If that doesn't happen, then check this post for more updates throughout the week for day to day commentary on all of the action! DAY ONE ANALYSIS 1500 Prelim: Ivy League Stars Falter; New Sleeper Picks Emerge The big story in the 1500 this year was the incredible strength of the milers in the Ivy League. After big names like Chris Hatler (Penn) and James Randon (Yale) failed to advance out of regionals, fans turned to experienced veterans like Napolitano (Columbia) and Gowans (Cornell) to earn All-American spots. Unfortunately, those two along with Yale sophomore Trevor Reinhart failed to qualify for Saturday's final round. Lost in all of this madness was William Paulson (Princeton) who is now listed at the bottom of the results as a DNF. Despite the disappointing season finish, you have to commend Paulson (along with the rest of the Ivy League milers) for stepping up to a completely new level this spring. The Heps men were almost undoubtedly the best milers from any conference this season. Aside from the Ivy League, I was a bit surprised to see Matt Dorsey (Air Force) and Chase Horrocks (BYU) also not make it to the final. Both are experienced and seasoned milers that have shown that they can thrive in tactical races. Not having them in the NCAA final will be a touch disappointing as I predicted they would finish among the All-Americans. While there were some names that left us wanting more, there were others that kept us excited. Andrew Dusing (Miami-Ohio) has to be one of the greatest post-season stories of the year. The man just ran a four second personal best to advance to the NCAA final! That is absolutely incredible when you think of the odds that were against him. He surprised us by making it out of regionals and he continues to surprise us now. Joining Dusing on Saturday will be Portland's Jeff Thies who never seemed like a 1500/miler type to me before this season (but he has of course proven me wrong). The junior just ran a lifetime personal best of 3:40 in the preliminaries and will look to take down four others for a spot at All-American glory. 3000 Steeple Prelim: Veterans Struggle In Prelim; Tooker Ends Cinderella Season It's almost impossible to guess how these steeplechase races will play out. With such an elite group of athletes jumping over hurdles and into water pits for nearly two miles, things won't always be perfect. Sure enough, that was the case in the preliminary round as established front-runners like Dyland Lafond (Illinois), Willy Fink (Eastern Michigan), Robert Murphy (IUPUI), and Johannes Motschmann (Iona) all failed to make the final despite being some of the most experienced distance runners in the NCAA. Austin O'Neil (UCLA) and Jamaine Coleman (EKU) were also big names that fell victim to the elite steeplechase field as they placed outside of the qualifying positions. Yet, the biggest miss in my eyes was freshman Aidan Tooker (Syracuse) who could very well be the best freshman distance runner in the NCAA this season (if we exclude mid-distances like the 800) after a huge personal best of 8:39 at East Regionals two weeks ago. Like Bailey Roth of Arizona was last year, Tooker is looking like the future of collegiate steeplechasing. Notable qualifiers to make Saturday's final included Noah Schutte (Portland), Jacob Heslington (BYU), and Dylan Blankenbaker (Oklahoma). All three of these men have had strong and consistent performances all season. They've consistently improved throughout both the spring and they have now separated themselves as emerging sleeper picks in an unpredictable steeplechase final. Heppenstall Set To Be 4/4 In All-American Attempts; Arroyo Makes Final; Joseph & Rutto Miss The 800 field has now been narrowed down to eight individuals. Barring any fluke circumstances such as a DQ or a DNF, Robert Heppenstall (Wake Forest) will once again become an All-American for the fourth straight time. This guy has to be one of the most clutch athletes in the NCAA as he never disappoints on the big stage. It's unlikely that he wins, but you can bet that he'll put up a respectable fight on Saturday. I will admit, Florida's Andres Arroyo has taken a heavy load of criticism from yours truly after his consistent failures to have an impact on the national level. Despite personal bests of 1:45 (in two separate seasons) Arroyo has only walked away as an All-American once in his six races at NCAA's (which was an unexciting 8th place finish). That doesn't even count last year where he completely missed qualifying for Nationals. Now, Arroyo has secured himself one of the eight spots to Saturday's final which should technically guarantee him All-American honors as long as he finishes the race / doesn't get disqualified. Would there be any better way for him to end his collegiate career than by upsetting Korir for the national title? A man can dream... I suppose we do have to talk about the big misses in the field which include Eliud Rutto (Mid. Tenn. St.) and Patrick Joseph (Virginia Tech). Admittedly, these two do have a history of struggling in the national preliminaries (at least as of late). Joseph took a nasty spill during NCAA's this past winter and did not move on to that final. Rutto also failed to make that same final after poor race execution left him as the first man out. While Joseph still has another year of eligibility to make some minor adjustments, Rutto's collegiate career is done. He will finish as a four-time All-American and be remembered as one of the key names to lead the elite half-milers of the 2010's. Scott Secures First National Title; Tactics Trump Time If we're being honest, the top result isn't that surprising. Scott was clearly better than every other athlete in this field. No one was consistently racing at the level Marc Scott was this season. His proven versatility, lethal kick, championship experience, and ability to adjust his race tactics made him the no-brainer to take this win. It was a well deserved victory for the Tulsa senior, but he now faces a much tougher challenge in the 5k where he will have to take on the likes of Justyn Knight and Grant Fisher. But Scott is a different story. The rest of the field? They surprised me. Of my eight picks to become All-American, only two of those guys walked away with that honor (Scott & Peterson). The Colorado State duo of Jerrell Mock and Grant Fischer just missed out on the top eight after throwing down NCAA #4 and NCAA #11 times earlier this season. I felt that at least one of them would make it through to the top eight. And how about Hassan Abdi (Oklahoma State)? His personal bests in the 5k and 10k this season made him seem a bit more versatile than some others in this field. In fact, you could make the same argument for George Parsons (NC State) and Jacob Choge (Mid. Tenn. St.). None of them had a "poor" race all season so it's surprising to see them outside of the All-American positions. Yet, the biggest surprise miss has to be Alfred Chelanga of Alabama who currently holds the top time in the NCAA 10k. After a mind-blowing 28:04 at the Stanford Invite, Chelanga was immediately thrown into the discussion as a name that could potentially challenge Edward Cheserek at NCAA's (before he withdrew due to an injury). Some even believed that Chelanga could have won once Cheserek was out of the picture. Unfortunately, tactical races do not seem to suit to the former Division 2 distance star as he fell out of the top eight to finish 11th overall. After such high expectations earlier this season, it was difficult to see Chelanga's season end like that. But as much as I like to harp on the negative, I do have to give credit where credit is due. The guys who knew how to RACE stepped up to the plate and had some outstanding performances. One of those guys was BYU sophomore and Canada native Rory Linkletter. He was a second behind Marc Scott to place second overall in what was one of the biggest surprises of the meet so far. And how about Lucas Stalnaker (Navy)? He was able to do what former teammate Stephen Schroeder couldn't do, by becoming an All-American with his fifth place finish. He was just behind Arsene Guillorel of Samford who seems to be thriving under head coach Pat McGregor after his fourth place All-American finish. It just goes that no matter how fast you've run during the regular season, if you can't adjust to mid-race surges or stay competitive in a kicker's race, then you'll struggle on the big stage. Then again, we are just getting accustomed to life after Cheserek. If he was in this race, would the results be similar? I like to think so, but... #predictions #ncaa #gzatlin #Nationals

800 The Favorite(s) In case you haven’t heard, UTEP has a true freshman named Emmanuel Korir and he is pretty darn fast. The 2017 NCAA indoor 800 champion did not ease up his efforts after the winter season. Instead, Korir blasted a 1:43.73 in late April which was good enough for NCAA #2 All-Time (behind only Donavan Brazier). He also tacked on a personal best of 44.53 in the open 400 to show that he may be the best all around mid-distance runner in the nation right now. Impact Runners Guys like Andres Arroyo (Florida) and John Lewis (Clemson) are guys that will take the pace out hard and make the field work for a fast time. If either one advances to the final, they could be the final piece of the puzzle that pushes Korir to an NCAA record. At the same time, you have to pay attention to the Virginia Tech duo of Drew Piazza and Patrick Joseph. They are sneaky good at working together and have some of the most underrated finishing speeds in the nation. They can easily disrupt the race in the last 200 and catch a lot of guys by surprise. Whenever they decide to kick, the field will most likely follow. Sleeper Picks This year’s freshmen have really impressed me. Domenic Perretta (PSU) and Matthew Harding (UNC-Asheville) have proven time and time again that they are legitimate national contenders and deserve to be in the All-American conversation. The same goes for Minnesota senior Nate Roese who has thrived in the month of May. In terms of racing, his momentum is at an all-time high and that can be dangerous for anyone that has to race him. 1500 The Favorite(s) It seems pretty clear that Josh Kerr is the heavy favorite coming into this race (and rightfully so). The man has been on absolute tear after out-kicking Cheserek to win the NCAA indoor mile this past winter season. Since then, he ran an NCAA #6 All-Time 1500 in 3:35.99 and followed that up with a 1:48.05/3:46 double victory at the Mountain West Conference Championships (which was run at altitude). Regardless of how fast the pace is, whether it is pushed or tactical, Kerr has shown that he can respond (and win) in either situation. Of course, I think it’s important to note that Craig Engels could be a legitimate threat to Kerr’s title. Engels ran 3:37 at Bryan Clay and was a large reason why Kerr ran such a fast time. The Ole Miss senior is arguably the most experienced individual in this field and has also proven that he can prosper in any type of race. He is one of the only individuals in this field that can match Kerr’s finishing speed. Impact Runners The 1500 holds plenty of new and inexperienced athletes that have never raced at this level before. This means that established names like Josh Thompson (Oklahoma State), Neil Gourley (Virginia Tech), James Gowans (Cornell), and a few others are given more power to control the race however they see fit. It’s quite likely that the field reacts to the moves and surges from these elite athletes rather than someone else. Sleeper Picks Chase Horrocks (BYU) has been one of the most underrated milers in the nation since the beginning of the indoor season. He can quietly gather wins, navigate through the rounds, and run blistering fast times. I would argue that he is one of the most consistent distance runners in the nation. The same goes for William Paulson (Princeton) who caught a bit more attention than Horrocks this season after defeating Drew Hunter in a head-to-head matchup in late April. He is a great tactical runner and was able to place second in the Heps 1500 which was filled with elite Ivy League talent like Hatler, Napolitano, Randon, and Gowans. 3000 Steeple The Favorite(s) The steeplechase has been the hardest race to figure out throughout this entire season. Coming into Regionals, Troy Fraley (Gonzaga) and Bailey Roth (Arizona) were the only two athletes to break 8:40 for the steeplechase, an all-time low for this event. Of course, no one anticipated that Edwin Kibichiy (Louisville) would unleash an 8:32 at Eastern Regionals and bring five others under the 8:40 mark with him. Is Kibichiy the favorite to win? After his regional performance, I would have to say yes. However, I think it is also fair to say that Kibichiy is not nearly the favorite that Mason Ferlic once was. I don’t think anyone would be shocked if Kibichiy lost. MJ (Ole Miss), Troy Fraley (Gonzaga), and Dyland Lafond (Illinois) are all names that have consistently improved this season and shown that they can run fast times against the best names in the nation. I believe these three, along with Kibichiy, are legitimate threats to win the national title. Impact Runners Big 12 champion Benard Keter (Texas Tech) is someone I believe can have a serious impact on how some of these races are run. We saw Keter at NCAA’s last year where he took control of a demanding pace in the prelims and forced some notable names out of the steeplechase final. Don’t be surprised if you see him try something like that again. Sleeper Picks The BYU steeplechasers have impressed me so much this season. Of the three steeplechasers they sent to NCAA’s, one is a senior, one is a sophomore, and one is a freshman. This group seems to only get better and better which each race and you have to think that at least one of them will walk away from Nationals as an All-American. 5000 The Favorite(s) Out of the 24 men in this field, three individuals stand out as favorites to the win title. Justyn Knight (Syracuse), Grant Fisher (Stanford), and Marc Scott (Tulsa) have looked unstoppable with each athlete having at least one marquee performance this season. If there was one name that stood above the rest, Justyn Knight would most likely be the guy. Knight unleashed an incredible 13:17 at Payton Jordan to defeat Cheserek and put himself at NCAA #4 All-Time. His ability to change gears and run at any pace makes him virtually impossible to defeat. Of course, if there is any kryptonite to Knight, it’s Marc Scott who has consistently kicked down Justyn Knight in multiple match-ups throughout their career. Could Scott once again haunt Knight in his attempt to win a national title? It would certainly be a heck of a story if he did. And if the race does become tactical, Grant Fisher may arguably have the best kick in the field. There’s been multiple times that Fisher has thrown down an impressive kick this season, but his PAC 12 championship performance stands out the most when he dropped a 51.8 second last lap to take the win in the 1500. If the race is slow enough, Fisher could easily snag this win. Impact Runners At Eastern Regionals, we saw Amon Terer (Campbell), Emmaneul Rotich (Tulane), and Jacob Choge (MTSU) keep the pace honest in an attempt to separate themselves from any strong finishers in the field. If they take the same approach at NCAA’s, you can bet that strength will come into play much more than a kick. Sleeper Picks Euan Makepeace (Butler) has been on my radar for a while. The kid has slowly improved his time throughout the season and has become a much better racer from a strategic point of view. His lethal kick at East Regionals along with the ability to run a wide range of events makes him the perfect sleeper pick. Bryce Stroede (Oakland) is another name that has been incredibly consistent this season as he has proven that he can run with the best names in the nation. His constant improvement and ability to race in slow or fast races makes him a candidate capable of standing on the podium. 10,000 The Favorite(s) Before this past indoor season, there were questions as to how well Marc Scott would be able to perform on the national stage. However, those doubts were quickly put to rest after silver and bronze medal performances at NCAA’s this past winter. He will certainly be the biggest name to watch and most likely the biggest favorite to win. Of course, we can’t forget about Alfred Chelanga (Alabama) who had the race of his life in the Stanford Invite 10k where he ran a personal best of 28:04 which is still an NCAA leading time at the moment. Can he put together another repeat performance and give Marc Scott a run for his money? It’s a scenario that is not out of the question. Impact Runners Much like the 5k, guys like Hassan Abdi (Oklahoma State), Matthew Baxter (NAU), and Jacob Choge (MTSU) have shown throughout this season that they will push the pace in an effort to break the field. For guys that struggle in tactical races, this field may suit them the most. Sleeper Picks Reeder Fischer (Drake) has elevated his fitness to a new level this year. He’s run some impressive personal bests in the 1500, 5k, and 10k which indicates that he is more than just a one-race wonder. Watch out for him to finish among the top eight this weekend. Another guy we should keep our eye on is Grant Fischer of Colorado State. It’s easy to get his name confused with the sophomore out of Stanford, but his performances show that he is just as talented. After barely missing All-American this past indoor season by placing 9th at NCAA’s, Fischer secured an impressive 10k personal best in a time of 28:45 at the Stanford Invite. Watch for Fischer to step up and grab his first All-American honors of his career in Eugene this weekend. #analysis #ncaa #Nationals #gzatlin

NCAA East Regionals 800 The East Region has been dominant this year when it comes to the half-mile. After Saruni was DQ’d from the NCAA Indoor Championships, six of the seven All-Americans came from the East Region. With so much fire power centered in the East, I figured we would more star names fall out of national qualifying. That, however, was not the case. The biggest name to miss the national qualifying mark was Blair Henderson of LSU who was an All-American this past indoor season. Mississippi’s Ryan Manahan was also a big miss as he was the dreaded first man out of NCAA’s despite running 1:46 earlier this season. Although Henderson and Manahan were big losses to the national championship, I was more interested in the little-known names that thrived throughout the rounds. Who would’ve thought that UNC-Asheville freshman Matthew Harding would run a full two-second PR in the final round to qualify for NCAA’s? It was a gutsy effort from Harding who was arguably the most clutch performer from this entire weekend. Another freshman that caught my attention was Domenic Perretta of Penn State. A series of solid races throughout the past two seasons has made this guy looking like the future of mid-distance running at PSU (along with Isaiah Harris) and his national qualifying performance only solidifies that mindset. Lastly, you have to be happy for Ethan Homan of Boston University. The Terrier senior has been painstakingly close to qualifying for NCAA’s the past few seasons and he finally got through in his final season of collegiate competition. 1500 Before Saturday’s 1500 final, we had plenty of drama regarding BIG 10 conference champion Justine Kiprotich of Michigan State. The Spartan sophomore apparently forgot his bib number as he toed the line to race in his preliminary heat. He was reportedly pulled off of the track before the race began. New NCAA race rules have established that athletes can not be disqualified from races they have not yet started. Therefore, Kiprotich was allowed entry to Saturday’s 1500 final due to a technicality despite multiple protests from other coaches. Of course, there was plenty of other interesting news coming out of the preliminary round. How about 2016 indoor mile champion Henry Wynne failing to advance to the finals? He had such an up and down season and it’s a touch disappointing to see his season end the way it did. 2017 indoor mile All-Americans Adam Palamar and Sampson Laari also did not make it out of the preliminaries. Admittedly, they both seemed a bit off their game this season as neither athlete earned a personal best this season and had only one win between the both of them. More surprises came during Saturday’s final as Ivy League stars James Randon (Yale) and Chris Hatler (Penn) both missed out on NCAA’s in two tactical races. On the flip side, we did see Napolitano (Columbia), Paulson (Princeton), Gowans (Cornell), and Reinhart (Yale) sneak into the top 12 qualifying spots. Who would have thought that James Randon would be the first man out of Nationals, but his little known sophomore teammate would end up making the trip to Eugene? It’s great to see guys like Reinhart come out of nowhere and upset the big names of track and field (even if it is their own teammate). Much like Ethan Homan in the 800, Andrew Dusing of Miami (Ohio) is a senior that will be making his first ever NCAA appearance. Dusing had a personal best of 3:45 this season and was ranked 91st in the nation entering East Regionals. In plenty of ways, he was an underdog to make it to Nationals. Dusing’s recent success could mean good things to come for the Torpy brothers who had strong freshmen years for this Miami (Ohio) program. 3000 Steeple We finally had our first big steeplechase performance of the year! Edwin Kibichiy (Louisville) was not fooling around this past weekend as he unleashed a huge time of 8:32 which is just two seconds off of his personal best. This is now Kibichiy’s second steeplechase win in a row after securing the ACC title two weeks ago. Behind Kibcihiy, we saw some huge personal bests from Jamaine Coleman (8:34), Emmanual Rotich (8:36), Scott Carpenter (8:36), and Aidan Tooker (8:39). In a separate heat, MJ Erb (Mississippi) threw down a solid time of his own in 8:36 to win his heat. If it’s not already clear, the East Region steeplechase was the only distance event in either region to have significantly changed the NCAA leaderboard and title conversation. Yet, even with all of the big performances, the surprise misses in this event were kept at a minimum. Guys like Nick Tuck (Penn), Jakob Abrahamsen (Eastern Kentucky), and Joseph Murphy (Indiana) were the most notable individuals that did not crack the top 12. Finally, Robert Murphy is a name that deserves your attention. The IUPUI senior will be making his first ever NCAA championship appearance of his career after running an excellent personal best of 8:44 this past weekend. 5000 Much like the steeplechase, there weren’t any major surprises. The big names like Justyn Knight, Jacob Choge, and Amon Terer got through the preliminary without too many problems. Nonetheless, there were still a few notable misses such as the Virginia men. Coming into East Regionals, UVA had five men entered in this event. Unfortunately, they left with only three finishers and no national qualifiers. That’s a bit surprising for a program that had such a strong showing at the beginning of the season in the distance events. Campbell freshman Amon Kemboi was another guy I had on my radar after his impressive performances throughout all of indoor and outdoor track. This kid consistently ran fast times and never really had an off day. I’m never a huge fan of freshman during championship season due to their inexperience, but I thought Kemboi had a very strong and legitimate chance of getting to Eugene. Speaking of consistency, Euan Makepeace of Butler is making me look really smart. In an article posted back in April, we mentioned Makepeace as a future star in the longer distances. Sure enough, a huge kick gave this sophomore a well deserved spot to the NCAA championships. Finally, we need to give some props to Emmanuel Rotich (Tulane) for running a personal best in the steeplechase (where he qualified for Nationals) and then coming back 24 hours later to qualify for Nationals in the 5k. That is an incredibly hard double when you consider the scheduling. 10,000 It seems like the longer in distance we get, the less surprises we have. That was certainly the case in the East Region 10k this past Thursday as many of the big names earned themselves a spot in the top 12 to qualify for Nationals. However, one name that did stand out to me was Frank Lara of Furman. He may not have the track resume that some of the other qualifiers do, but he showed a tremendous amount of improvement this season in both the 5k and 10k. That improvement seemed to accumulate in one well-executed race which led to Lara qualifying for Nationals. Colin Bennie was another notable name that I didn’t think would get through to Nationals, but did. Admittedly, Bennie hasn’t looked quite as strong as he did during 2016. His times aren’t nearly as fast as they once used to be and his placement at certain meets isn’t as impressive. Still, this is a guy who stepped up when he needed to and got himself the last qualifying spot to Eugene. I can sit here and type critiques all day, but Bennie came through when it mattered the most and you have to commend him for that. On the flip side, Bennie’s teammate Philo Germano was a guy that I felt pretty confident would get through to NCAA’s. He improved upon his 1500 and 5k times this season which put to rest any concerns about how well he would rebound from an injury he sustained in the winter. Those times coupled with his close runner-up finish in the ACC 10k gave me the impression that he could make it into the top 12. He may not be advancing, but he had a very respectable season. The 10k requires a lot of base mileage and getting injured in the winter months does not help with that. #gzatlin #ncaa #weekendreview #recap #regionals

NCAA West Regionals 800 This field may not have been as established and experienced as the men in the East Region, but there was plenty of respectable depth which meant that some notable names would inevitably be left out. How about USC’s Robert Ford getting through the rounds and qualifying for NCAA’s with a near PR of 1:47? The last time Ford ran 1:47 was at Mnt. SAC in 2016 (although he failed to make NCAA’s that year). Ford will look to capture his first All-American honors in his career in two weeks. After strong performances earlier this season at the Sun Angel Classic, Iowa State’s Jaymes Dennison and Roshon Roomes both failed to make the National Championship. The Cyclone duo had only run the event two times (each) before coming into Regionals. It wasn’t too big of a surprise to see them struggle against an elite and loaded field like this one. Iowa’s Carter Lilly and Will Teubel did not make NCAA’s either. After a breakout season in 2016, all eyes were on Lilly to make NCAA’s and grab his first All-American honors in 2017. Unfortunately, Lilly’s season got off to a slow start and he didn’t seem to have the edge we saw last year. On a lighter note, let’s talk about the rise of Nate Roese. The Minnesota senior had never broken 1:50 until May 3rd of this season when he ran 1:49.63 to win the Bear Cat Twilight meet. After placing third at BIG 10’s, Roese entered Regionals and hit a 1:48 personal best to advance to NCAA’s for the first time in his career (in an individual event). Roese will be accompanied by teammate Mitch Hechsel when they depart for NCAA’s. Finally, I feel like Nick Harris (Colorado), Eric Brown (Wisconsin), Vincent Crisp (Texas Tech), Ricky Fuare (Wyoming), and Bryce Hoppel (Kansas) deserve a mention. This group has been incredibly consistent all season. They ran great times and won plenty of races. I thought at least two of these guys would make it to NCAA’s, but unfortunately that was not the case. 1500 There were very few surprises in the preliminary round of his race. However, Arizona’s Carlos Villarreal was a favorite of mine to make NCAA’s. Unfortunately, he finished last in his heat and last overall (by seven seconds). Did he fall? Get ill? Simply have a bad race? I’m a bit surprised that someone of his caliber was that far behind the group. Shane Streich (Minnesota) is another name I felt confident would get to NCAA’s. He had a very underrated indoor season and had been pretty consistent throughout the spring. Despite his recent success, he fell out of contention in the preliminary round. The real surprises didn’t happen until the final on Saturday when we saw some big names miss the cut to Nationals. Of the five Oregon Ducks entered, all of them made it to the final but only Haney and Gorman qualified for NCAA’s. I’m not too surprised about Tamagno and Stanovsek failing to advance. Running multiple tactical races on the big stage is something that requires experience. A situation like that isn’t easy for most freshman. Sam Prakel, on the other hand, is a guy I thought would get through. He has so much experience and was having an awesome season coming into Regionals. Based on the results, it looks like he just got unlucky in the final kick of his heat and missed out on the last automatic qualifying spot (held by Craig Nowak) by .21 seconds. California’s Thomas Joyce was a step ahead of Prakel and missed Nowak by .15 seconds. He will not make the trip to NCAA’s. It’s tough to say what exactly happened to Joyce after his breakout season in 2015. After running personal bests of 13:34 and 3:39, everyone thought this guy would be the next big star in American distance running. But as fate would have it, Joyce plateaued throughout the 2016 and 2017 seasons and never hit those times again. He would, however, show flashes of brilliance like when he ran a 3:58 mile this past indoor season to qualify for the indoor national championships. Still, whatever happened to the guy that earned seven wins in a season? Jonah Koech is in a similar boat. The UTEP Miner was taking the NCAA by storm during his freshman year. Then the phenoms of Korir and Saruni entered the program and he hasn’t been the same since. He didn’t even come close to hitting his 800 PR of 1:46 this season. His best time in 2017 was a 1:49.99. Although I believe Jonah Koech made the right choice by running the mile, he simply got unlucky as he was the first man out of NCAA’s in this event. And what about Kasey Knevelbaard of Southern Utah? I was convinced that this guy would be the next collegiate great miler. He had some sneaky good races during the indoor season and blew away the competition at the Stanford Invite when he won the 1500 in the slow section with a time of 3:41. Solid performances in the 800 and 5k along with a double gold effort at BIG Sky made this guy seem like a no-brainer to qualify for NCAA’s. Unfortunately, Knevelbaard ended his season as the second man out of NCAA’s after a tactical race didn’t go his way. Yet, for every big name that missed Nationals, there is an underrated sleeper pick that many of us missed. Daniel Gagne (Bradley) is a name that deserves some respect after his National qualifying performance this past weekend. The Bradley program has really stepped up their game over the past year and they have proven that they can run with the goliaths of Division One. Another name to mention is Alex Riba (Texas A&M) who has been a respectable miler throughout most of his career. He may not get a lot of wins, but he’s consistent and knows how to race. Admittedly, I wasn’t sold on Riba qualifying for Nationals. The competition he faces in the southern portion of the U.S. isn’t quite as strong as the competition he would face up north or out west. Of course, what do I know? Riba ran 3:48 in his heat of the 1500 final to grab the first time qualifier to NCAA’s ahead of some up-and-coming stars. It just goes to prove that experience and race tactics can trump talent on any given day. Just look at the results. No freshman qualified for the NCAA 1500 in either region. 3000 Steeple Overall, there weren’t too many major surprises in this event. Established names like Cale Wallace (Arkansas) and Colby Wilson (Utah State) failed to move on to NCAA’s, but their performances this season weren’t quite as strong as their performances from 2016. Other notable misses include Yusuke Uchikoshi (Boise State) and Ben Preisner (Tulsa). Both of these individuals had some solid experience entering this season and they both earned personal bests under 8:50 this season. However, the biggest surprise miss came from Alex Rogers of Texas. Leading up to Regionals, I questioned as to why Rogers opted out of the 1500 and entered the steeplechase instead. He has more championship experience in the 1500 and didn’t even score at BIG 12’s in the steeplechase. Maybe it’s because the title conversation was more open in the steeplechase than it was in the 1500. Then again, the steeplechase field was arguably deeper than the 1500. In the end, Rogers finished 18th at Regionals and ended his season a week earlier than expected. It was a high-risk gamble and unfortunately it didn’t work out. Freshman Clayson Shumway led an elite crew of BYU steeplechasers throughout the entire season. With a personal best of 8:47 and other consistent performances, I felt like Shumway had a solid chance of making it through to NCAA’s. Unfortunately, of the three BYU Cougars to make Nationals in this event, Shumway was not one of them. Weber State also had a very solid chance of sending a representative to Nationals with Luca Sinn and Jordan Cross. Yet, the results showed that neither of them placed inside the top 40 of this event. The Weber State duo was incredibly consistent all season and never gave me a reason to doubt them. They may not have advanced, but you have to credit them for having one heck of a season. But let’s talk about who actually made it to Nationals! No one in our prediction contest had New Mexico’s Graham Thomas in their top 12. Thomas entered Regionals as the 50th ranked steeplechaser in the NCAA, but finished 3rd overall. Portland sophomore Noah Schutte was a pleasant surprise as well. He was ranked 56th in the nation coming into Regionals and finished 9th overall. This has been a breakout season for Schutte who secured personal bests in the 1500, 10k, and now steeplechase. 5000 You have to expect surprises in every race, but I didn’t expect this many big-time names missing out on NCAA’s. Mike Tate (Southern Utah), Jefferson Abbey (Colorado State), Matt Baxter (NAU), Dillon Maggard (Utah State), and Reed Fischer (Drake) all failed to make Nationals in this event. Out of all of those names, Tate had to be the biggest surprise. After a 13:39 solo performance at the Stanford invite and his 13:34 at Payton Jordan, Tate seemed like an automatic lock to make Nationals. Jefferson Abbey (Colorado State) was another huge miss. After a year filled with struggles, it seemed like Abbey had found his groove again with personal bests of 13:37 and 3:42 this season. His combination of speed and endurance made him one of favorites to get through a tactical regional race. So who were the guys that replaced the heavy favorites above? Craig Lautenslager (UT-Arlington), Joe Hardy (Wisconsin), Daniel De La Torre (UCLA), and Jonathan Davis (Illinois) all found spots to Nationals. In an event that requires so much experience and years of base mileage, the underclassmen dominated. Of the 12 individuals that qualified for NCAA’s, one was a freshman and five were sophomores. 10,000 Unlike the 5k, this event was rather predictable and it lacked surprise performances. The notable names that did not make NCAA’s include Alex Short (San Francisco), Cory Glines (NAU), Trent Brendel (California), and Robert Brandt (California). Overall, it was rather predictable. Tulsa, BYU, Colorado State, and Oklahoma State each had a two individuals work together and snag a qualifying spot. Other established names like Fischer (Drake), Baxter (NAU), Schrobilgen (Wisconsin), and Tanner Anderson (Oregon) took the other four qualifying spots. Would this result have been any different if Cheserek competed? It’s tough to say. When an entire race centers around one athlete and then that athlete is taken out, you would think it changes the dynamic of how the race is run. #ncaa #gzatlin #regionals #weekendreview #recap

Another reminder that we will be keeping track of our predictions and tweeting updates of Regional results on our Twitter account @TheStrideReport. Follow us and keep up with all of the action happening throughout the weekend. WEST REGIONAL ENTRIES HERE FINAL THOUGHTS... 800 -Three freshmen own the top three times in the West Region for this event. Since 2010, there has never been a year where the top three entries in the West Region 800 have been as young as this trio. Although our research only goes back to 2010, it is probably safe to say that no other year has had the top three entries be freshmen . 1500 -As mentioned in an earlier article, Oregon has five men entered in this event. In the past seven years (since 2010) Oregon has sent three individuals to NCAA’s four times in this event. With Cheserek no longer there to score points, the Ducks will look to pack this event with as many of their five guys as possible. -Oklahoma State also has five men entered in this event, but three of their seeds are entered at 40th, 44th, and 45th (out of 48). -Since 2010, no one from Southern Utah, Portland, UTEP, UCLA, Bradley, San Francisco, or South Dakota St. have made it NCAA’s in this event. Of the top 20 seeds this year, eight of them run for those programs. 3000 Steeple -Keep in mind that Alex Rogers decided to forgo the 1500 this year (an event he qualified for last year as a freshman) for the steeplechase. While I do believe that he has a better chance of placing higher in the steeplechase than he does the 1500, his decision still holds a substantial amount of risk when you consider that he didn’t even score in this event at BIG 12’s. -BYU has five different athletes entered in this event. Four of them are seeded in the top 20. 5000 -This will be the first time since 2014 that we will have an NCAA 5k champion not named Edward Cheserek. -Arkansas and Wisconsin both have four individuals entered in this event. -Colorado has sent at least one individual to NCAA’s in this event every year since 2010. 10,000 -This will be the first time since 2013 that we will have an NCAA 5k champion not named Edward Cheserek. -Oregon has sent at least one individual to NCAA’s in this event every year since 2010. -In 2011, Stanford sent four individuals to Nationals in this event. Portland has five men entered in the 10k this weekend. #analysis #ncaa #predictions #gzatlin